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Welcome to Chalk Town! NFL favorites rolled this week, with a ridiculous 10 favorites covering in Week 8. That's two straight weeks now where we've seen the public do well by laying the points as we start to see separation season happening in the NFL. We need to be a little cautious of that, but we also need to recognize which favorites are capable of handling their business even when laying either a lot of points or laying a short number on the road. With that in mind, let's try and get the best of the number for several games in Week 9. Click here to bet on NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets if their first bet wins plus three months of NBA League Pass: Here, let's dive into a few games and props as we head into the week, including one running back poised for a big outing and what should be a wild revenge game. Bet Week 9 at BetMGM, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if their first football bet doesn't win: Bet it now: Packers at Panthers Under 45.5 We got great CLV last week jumping on a Panthers Under early in the week, but the Panthers decided not to play any defense and gave up 40 points on their own to the Bills to ruin what looked like a pretty sharp bet when they scored a total of nine points. The Bills were not interested in just hitting cruise control ahead of Kansas City. The Packers should handle things a little differently, barring another 21-point, fourth-quarter, Tucker Kraft-fueled explosion. I'd expect a lot of Josh Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson at home to grind out the Panthers in the fourth quarter. I'd also assume the Panthers are unable to keep pace with the Packers in the early portion of this game, especially if Bryce Young can't go or is hobbled. Green Bay is a 12.5-point favorite and the line keeps scooting out even further. If you like the Packers, they'd be worth taking now, but it is a ton of points (although it could get to 14 given what we saw from these two teams in Week 8). The total and the spread are correlated and the total is currently a good bit better than the rest of the market on DraftKings. Bet it now: Rams -13.5 vs. Saints Catch the theme of this week's early bets article yet? It's key numbers. The Rams are a top-five NFL team coming off their bye after throttling the Jaguars in London. I generally don't trust Sean McVay to cover massive numbers, but we saw Spencer Rattler get benched this week for Tyler Shough. If Shough is the starter moving forward, it's a really bad spot for the rookie against a rested Rams defense that put a ton of pressure on Trevor Lawrence. The Saints were frisky to start the season but have really started to come apart, and it's not unreasonable we see some of their better players shipped out this week as the trade deadline approaches. We could/should also get Puka Nakua back this week, which only makes the Rams that much more dangerous on offense. This number will close north of two touchdowns and it gets tough to lay more than 14 pretty quickly regardless of the matchup. The Rams are capable of getting a three-touchdown lead and just putting the Saints in a chokehold, which should mean this game ends as a low-scoring, easy win for another good team coming off a bye. Bet it now: Colts -3 at Steelers This is a tough spot for Pittsburgh, which has now lost two straight games in 10 days, including a rough mini-melt against the Packers on Sunday where it felt like the Steelers could find a way to beat Green Bay in the ultimate revenge game for Aaron Rodgers. It didn't happen, and their reward for the late-night Sunday loss is hosting the Colts, who currently have the best record in football. Indianapolis isn't overlooking anyone despite the 7-1 star because everyone continues to overlook them to a degree, so I'd expect full concentration for the Colts in this one as Jonathan Taylor continues to mount his OPOY campaign (he opened 40-1 and is now -225 in most places). The market is pretty clear here: the Colts are "just" a 3-point road favorite, but it's going to push past that key number, and I'm not sure there will be a ton of buyback this week given how good Indianapolis actually is. If you like the Colts, it's best to jump on them now. Bet it now: 49ers (-2.5) at Giants Same deal here as the Colts. We're laying a short road favorite early in the week because we want to keep this at a key number. If you like the Giants, hold off because this game is going to get past three. If you like the 49ers, it's time to jump on them now, because they're going to be laying a full field goal by the time we get to the weekend. The Giants have been reasonably frisky at home this year, beating the Chargers, but they're now coming off a game in which they were overpowered by the Eagles while watching Cam Skattebo suffer a brutal injury. Skattebo and Jaxson Dart infused this team with a ton of energy, and I'm not so sure we might see a letdown spot here with San Francisco coming to town and Brock Purdy looking like he has a better chance of playing.
