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The battle for the 2025 F1 drivers’ title is heating up and with four rounds remaining this season, it remains a three-horse race. Lando Norris had a near-perfect weekend in Mexico, winning from pole position while his rivals struggled. Oscar Piastri finished fifth and, as a result, surrendered the championship lead for the first time since Saudi Arabia in April. Norris’s lead, however, is just one point ahead of the next race in Brazil. Max Verstappen also experienced a tricky weekend, but recovered from fifth on the grid to finish on the podium in third. Now, he trails new championship leader Norris by 36 points. Momentum had shifted in Red Bull’s favour, with plenty of pundits backing Verstappen to complete an unprecedented comeback after three wins in four. But does Norris’s dominant weekend hand the initiative back to the Briton? There will be 33 points up for grabs at the next round in Sao Paulo, which also hosts a sprint race. But where could the title be won or lost? The Independent evaluates each of the next five races, who it favours and the permutations at play as the 2025 season reaches its finale. Much like last year, this could be a game-changing weekend. Once again, the terrific Interlagos circuit will host a sprint race, with 33 points up for grabs over the course of the weekend. Verstappen registering that maximum figure last time out in Austin thrust him firmly back into the title picture – could he repeat that feat? Verstappen should, once more, be the favourite. From his miraculous save in 2016 to the drive of his life from P17 to P1 last year, the Dutchman adores the variable weather conditions Sao Paulo often throws up. No doubt he and his Red Bull team will be doing the rain dance. Contrastingly, this is where Norris’s title challenge faded with a whimper last season. Has he learned from that experience? And how could it help him this time around? Solace for McLaren lies in the track configurations. No extensively long straight and a series of slow corners should level the playing field car-wise. This event will be about who can limit mistakes. Prediction: Verstappen P1 (sprint P2), Piastri P2 (sprint P3), Norris P3 (sprint P1). Forecasted lead: Norris/Piastri joint-leaders; +27 to Verstappen The Sin City strip circuit – in its third iteration – could well be an outlier round. In cool conditions, Mercedes dominated last year with George Russell leading a one-two finish. The Silver Arrows will be right in the mix again this year, potentially throwing a spanner in the works for the three title rivals. Verstappen, who sealed the title in Vegas last year, won the first race in 2023, and the 1.92km back straight should again favour the Red Bull car. How the tyres cope with the cool 12C conditions, however, will be a pivotal aspect to the whole weekend. Norris crashed out of the inaugural race in Vegas two years ago and finished sixth last season, with Piastri only seventh. Both will need major improvements this time around. Prediction: Verstappen P2; Norris P3; Piastri P4 Forecasted lead: Norris +3 to Piastri; +24 to Verstappen The final sprint weekend of the season – and likely the final venue for a major points swing, should it occur. Alarmingly for McLaren, Verstappen has won the last two races at the Lusail International Circuit, which has several high-speed corners but is also known for high tyre wear, as illustrated by the mandatory three-stop rule in 2023. Given there are no further upgrades this season, McLaren and Red Bull could be tighter than ever by the penultimate round. Warm conditions in the Middle East and a quick turnaround from Vegas – and a 12-hour time zone shift – are other factors at play, as the title race reaches boiling point. Prediction: Verstappen P1 (sprint P3), Norris P2 (sprint P1), Piastri P3 (sprint P2) Forecasted lead: Norris +7 to Piastri; +19 to Verstappen Put Sunday 7 December in your calendars now; all evidence suggests that this three-horse race will go down to the final grand prix. On paper, out of all the tracks remaining, the Yas Marina Circuit probably favours McLaren the most. Norris won the race last year – sealing the 2024’ constructors’ title in the process – while Verstappen and Piastri collided at the start, with the Dutchman penalised. It would be the first title-deciding final race since the infamous 2021 finale between Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton and those thrilling and controversial final few laps. Anything close to that level of drama this time around – and we’re in for a treat. Predicting the champion, I said Norris right at the start of the season – and I’ll stick by that. Prediction: Norris P1, Verstappen P2, Piastri P3 Forecasted winner: Norris +17 to Piastri; +26 to Verstappen
