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The first weekend of November certainly did not disappoint. Last weekend, nine of 14 games were decided by a touchdown or less (including five by a field goal or less). If Week 9 was any indication, we’re in for a thrilling second half of the 2025 NFL campaign. This weekend’s slate features a handful of huge games between playoff contenders, including: Patriots vs. Bucs in a clash between two first-place teams (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) a massive NFC West matchup between the Rams and Niners (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET) Steelers vs. Chargers on SNF in a key game for AFC playoff seeding (SNF) Eagles vs. Packers, with massive implications in the battle for the 1-seed in the NFC (MNF) And we haven’t even mentioned the handful of notable players who will be making their debut with their new team. While former Jets DL Quinnen Williams’ new squad, the Cowboys, is on the bye, star corner Sauce Gardner (traded from the Jets to the Colts), wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (traded from the Saints to the Seahawks) and outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips (traded from the Dolphins to the Eagles) could all see their first action in their new uniforms. Before we dive into this week’s picks, it’s worth noting that the betting favorites went just 5-9 ATS in Week 9 after an 11-2 showing in Week 8. Notable upsets in Week 9 included the Panthers over the Packers as two-touchdown dogs at Lambeau and the Vikings — who were catching 8.5 points in Detroit — over the Lions in Detroit. The four teams on the bye this weekend are the Bengals, Cowboys, Titans and Chiefs. Click here to subscribe to Newsweek Sports Betting 📩 Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 72-64 Week 1: 7-9 Week 2: 9-7 Week 3: 9-7 Week 4: 6-10 Week 5: 8-6 Week 6: 10-5 Week 7: 11-4 Week 8: 3-11 🤡🤡🤡 Week 9: 9-5 All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET Raiders at Broncos (-9.5) — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video) Pick: Raiders +9.5 The favorites cruised on TNF the last two weeks, but I think we’ll get a tight Thursday nighter this week. The Raiders (2-6) are coming off of their best offensive performance of the season in an overtime loss to the Jaguars, while the Broncos (7-2) eked out a tough road win over the Texans last Sunday. Las Vegas QB Geno Smith has had two of his best games of the year in the last three weeks. He’s also only — hear me out here, please — been intercepted twice and sacked five times in his last three games. While that doesn’t quite constitute “clean football,” it is a massive step in the right direction for a guy was sacked 16 times and intercepted nine times in the first five weeks of the season. I also like the Raiders on the spread given that five of Denver’s seven wins this year came by 8 points or fewer. In just the last four weeks, Denver needed last-second heroics in a 3-point win over the 3-5 Texans, a 1-point win over the 2-7 Giants and a 2-point win over the 1-7 Jets. Falcons at* Colts (-6.5) — Sun., 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network) Pick: Falcons +6.5 The Colts (7-2) came crashing back to Earth last Sunday after a red-hot start, losing 27-20 to the Steelers on a five-turnover day by QB Daniel Jones. The Falcons (3-5) looked like legit contenders after a convincing Week 5 win over the Bills improved their record to 3-2, but they followed that up with two awful days offensively in double-digit losses to the 49ers and the Dolphins. Now, they enter Week 10 on a three-game losing streak. Atlanta played much better in a 1-point loss to the Patriots on the road last Sunday, but there are major concerns on the O-line after starting guards Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom had to leave the Pats game early. Assuming those two are able to return to a unit that lost starting RT Kaleb McGary before the season, I expect Atlanta to score enough to once again cover in a tough game away from home. *This week’s international game takes place at Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany. Saints at Panthers (-5.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX) Pick: Panthers -5.5 This line opened at Panthers -4.5 and quickly moved to Panthers -5.5. That’s where it has remained, even after the Saints (1-8) sent WR Rashid Shaeed to the Seahawks and right tackle Trevor Penning to the Chargers ahead of the trade deadline New Orleans opened QB Tyler Shough’s first NFL start last Sunday vs. the Rams with four three-and-outs in its first five possessions. It also struggled on defense, giving up 281 yards passing and 171 on the ground. The Panthers (5-4) have gone 5-2 since an 0-2 start, and their running game makes it hard to pick against them at home, especially against a team dealing with as many issues as the Saints are right now. Giants at Bears (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX) Pick: Bears -3.5 The Bears (5-3) D is struggling amid a number of ...
