Copyright Forbes
The National Retail Federation is out with its holiday 2025 forecast, projecting that November-December retail sales will rise between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year to surpass the $1 trillion mark for the first time. While the NRF has a good track record of hitting its numbers, retailers should pause before breathing a sigh of relief. S&P Global Ratings’ analyst Bea Chiem warns: “We believe price increases to offset tariffs will account for most of the sales growth, with minimal unit volume gains. We expect holiday retail spending by consumers will remain relatively flat, which illustrates the challenging operating conditions for retailers and supports our negative ratings bias in the sector.” Even more troubling, Deloitte’s “2025 Holiday Retail Survey,” conducted among 4,000 adult U.S. consumers, found that consumers plan to cut spending by 10% this year. Even high-income households are tightening their budgets this year. And most troubling of all, Gen Z consumers expect to reduce their spending by a staggering 34%. Gen Z Crave IRL Experience A significant share of the nation’s 60 million Gen Zers – aged 13 to 28 this year – are on the threshold of adulthood, developing shopping habits and brand preferences that will define their purchasing behavior for years to come. Being the first truly digitally native generation, Zoomers have learned quickly that technology is but a tool to support their lifestyle and no substitute for real-life experiences. In a confounding countertrend to the rise of digital convenience, they increasingly value community, authenticity, hands-on engagement and real-life experiences. It is driving a resurgence in analog rituals and reimagined holiday traditions that prioritize meaning over materialism. Looking For Bargains Despite Gen Z’s plans to cut holiday spending dramatically, gift shopping is not off their list, yet they will be especially price-conscious – 89% of consumers will be searching for deals and 77% expect to trade down to more affordable brands and retailers, according to the Deloitte survey. In holiday shopping this year, Gen Zers will be at the forefront of value-seeking behavior. They will be using all the tools in their digital arsenal to make sure every dollar spent counts. Social media, used by 59% of consumers, will lead the way in supporting Zoomers’ holiday shopping decisions. And about one-third of consumers expect Gen AI to help them find the best gifts at the right price. “While the upcoming holiday season is marked by economic uncertainty, the pull of tradition seems to have many consumers doing all they can to spread holiday cheer,” said Deloitte’s principal retail strategy leader Brian McCarthy. “This includes seeking out value and expanding the shopping window to ensure they capture the best deals to make their holiday dollars go further.” Spreading Cheer Without Spending A Lot Of Money With Deloitte finding that 57% of consumers expect the economy to weaken in 2026 – the highest level of economic uncertainty since 1997 when it began tracking economic sentiment – and the Gen Zer cohort facing the highest levels of financial instability, job insecurity and rising costs of any previous generation, they will be looking for creative ways to spread more holiday cheer without breaking the budget. Because TikTok ranks as one of their preferred social media channels, virtually tied with Snapchat and Instagram, a new report from TikTok about holiday search trends reveals insights into how Zommers will be celebrating this year. The TikTok holiday report is further validated by a survey among 2,000 American adults conducted by Morning Consult. “During the holiday season, TikTok serves as both a discovery engine and hub of cultural exchanges among our diverse community,” the report states. “2025 platform trends show that this holiday season, users are starting to embrace community-centered content, nostalgia aesthetics, creative recipes and gifting ideas from the DIY community.” Overall, nine in ten TikTok users are turning to the platform for holiday inspiration and advice, including 40% who are looking for decorating ideas and nearly half who are searching for holiday recipes to serve or gift to family and friends. On the other hand, only about one-fourth of users have purchased or expect to purchase a gift seen on TikTok, suggesting that the gift exchange plays a less important role in their holiday celebrations than simply sharing time together. Here are some trends uncovered in the survey and recent TikTok searches this year and last: Getting Ready For Game Night Over 40% of TikTok users look forward to a holiday game night and one-quarter turn to TikTok to discover game night ideas. During the fourth quarter 2024, there were 2.1 million searches for “Games,” ranking it among the top 20 searches for all major fourth quarter holidays last year, including Halloween, Thanksgiving, Chanukah, Christmas and New Year’s Eve. Specifically, “Holiday Games” was the fifth most-searched gaming term, followed by eighth-most popular “Christmas Family Games,” number 13 “Thanksgiving Games” and “New Year’s Eve Games” at number 26. Specifically, “Christmas Party Game” was the top party-themed search term through November and December 2024. Gifts Handmade With Love The number of searches for DIY and home-made gifts rose nearly three-times during the fourth quarter last year. “DIY” was consistently ranked among the top holiday and Christmas searches with #CROCHET, #JUNKJOURNAL, #SEWING and #EMBROIDERY among the top DIY trends. And 10% of Christmas décor searches included the term “DIY.” During September 2024, searches for these terms, as well as #HANDMADE, #HANDMADEJEWELRY, #THRIFTFINDINGS and #VINTAGE were trending. Craving Yesteryear Nostalgia for times past is an emerging trend on TikTok. #NOSTALGIA, especially an interest in the 1990s holiday look and feel, is growing in popularity – a decade before most Zoomers (years 1997 to 2012) were born. During September, searches for “90s Christmas” and “Ralph Lauren Christmas” surged, as did “POV 90s Christmas.” Nostalgia is also playing out in holiday decorating themes. Popular decorative search terms include “Pink Christmas Décor,” “Grinch Christmas Décor,” “Harry Potter Christmas Décor,” “Nightmare Before Christmas Décor,” and “Candyland Christmas Décor.” Searches for Country, Pink and Cinderella Christmas tree decorating are also trending. Love In Every Bite Baking has become Zoomers’ love language. #BAKING grew by 29% from November to December last year. “Banana Bread” searches surged to the number two spot among the top 25 most searched recipes in September this year and “Cinnamon Roll Recipe” ranked among the top 25 recipes in October and December last year. Cookie-related posts surged in December last year as well, totaling as many as during October and November combined. Overall, about half of TikTok users are looking for holiday recipes, not just to bake but also to serve at holiday gatherings. The top four recipe searches in last year’s fourth quarter were for nostalgic favorites like Mac and Cheese (498k searches), Mashed Potatoes (334k), Turkey (293k), and Deviled Eggs (208k). Get Cozy, Get Glam With the turn of the season, searches for cozy loungewear were on the uptick. But what really trended were searches for “Matching Pajamas,” indicating that lounging was to be done in tandem, not solo. Searches for matching pjs were up 400% from August to September and searches for “Christmas Pajamas” spiked that month as well, doubling from August. And TikTok is a place people turn to for holiday fashion and beauty inspiration. Last holiday season, there were over 300k searches for “New Year’s Eve Outfit” and 850k for “Christmas Nails.” Traditions Provide Meaning The TikTok report highlights that the “Heal Your Inner Child” trend is evident in how users are planning their holiday celebrations this year. It reflects a generational longing to return to tradition as a way to provide more meaning in their lives and build a true sense of belonging. “They need to recreate the social structure and social cohesion of a community which allows them to connect meaningfully with one another in the real world, through emotion, communication and touch so they can feel like they belong,” shared Dr. Martina Olbert, founder of consultancy Meaning Global and a leading authority on brand meaning. Traditions ground us in the here and now, as well as connect us to the past and propel us more confidently into the future. That is what Gen Z are searching for in this year’s holiday season and likely for years to come. Speaking of Gen Z, Olbert observed, “They are not romanticizing the past; they are missing the context of life. These Gen Z people as digital-firsts were robbed of the spontaneous life experience of the social-first, natural-first world. “This is just a natural call to come back to the real natural context of life, to make sense, to ground oneself and to create some stability in life to grow,” she concluded.
