Copyright Newsweek
Democrats are eyeing a special election in a traditionally conservative Tennessee House district as a potential flip opportunity following their victories in races across the country last week. Why It Matters Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District would not normally be considered competitive—it backed President Donald Trump by more than 20 percentage points in last year’s presidential race. However, Democrats have been overperforming in elections this year, and the party is hopeful that Democrat Aftyn Behn may be able to make the race competitive. Turnout will be key to how competitive the race becomes. Democrats have outpaced Republicans in turnout in most special elections this year. Such was the case last week, when Democrats comfortably won the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey—a shift compared to last November, when Republicans gained ground across the country. That will have to hold next month for Democrats to have a chance in the district. What To Know The race pits Behn, a state legislator, against Republican Matt Van Epps, a veteran. They are vying to fill a seat vacated by former Representative Mark Green, who resigned from the House earlier in the year. Despite the conservative nature of the district, the race is garnering national attention. Ken Martin, who chairs the Democratic National Committee (DNC), is set to campaign with Behn in the coming weeks, NBC News reported. Recent polling gives Van Epps an advantage but shows a closer-than-expected race. An Impact Social poll of the race showed Van Epps up by about eight points (52 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 700 likely voters from October 16-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. A Behn internal poll conducted by Workbench Strategy also showed Van Epps up by eight points. But it also found that among those most motivated to vote, the two candidates were tied at 49 percent support. It surveyed 400 likely voters from October 15-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns for comment via email. Although Republicans typically have an advantage in the district, there is an opportunity for Democrats to pull an upset, John Geer, Vanderbilt Poll co-director and professor of political science, told Newsweek on Monday. Behn can make the race competitive by tapping into the “unhappiness” among the public with both parties and portraying herself as primarily concerned with the average resident of the district, he said. “She’s smart. She’s talented. We’ll see if she can generate a lot of turnout and interest. It’s an open question. I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion,” he said. Democrats will need a “perfect storm” to flip the seat,” William Lyons, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, told Newsweek. “Were this an election held during the regular cycle, it would not be viewed as one where the Republican is the clear favorite–possibly in the 60-40 range. However, this is shaping up to be a much lower turnout election. That could narrow that range if things fell in place for the Democrats through more intensity among their base coupled with a strong ground game,” he said. Democrats have performed well in special elections this year, at times overperforming by large margins. In the special election for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, for instance, Adelita Grijalva won by 39 points, while former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by 22 points last November. In the special election for Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, Democrat James Walkinshaw won by about 50 points after Harris won by 34. What People Are Saying William Lyons, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, told Newsweek: “This is an election that might provide some hints for what might occur in the midterms next year. The last midterm cycle in 2022 was disappointing for the Republicans. Recall the anticipated “red wave” that failed to materialize. If Behn can get within single digits in this district, it would represent a positive sign for Democrats next year.” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson told NBC News: “Democrats are so desperate they’ll burn cash in a district redder than a Tennessee sunset just to distract from Aftyn Behn’s radical agenda. While they waste resources chasing a fantasy, Matt Van Epps is laser-focused on fighting for families, securing the border, and unleashing American energy.” DNC Chair Ken Martin wrote on X on Saturday: “It’s all gas, no brakes here in Nashville as we organize to elect @aftynfortn as Tennessee’s newest congressional representative.” What Happens Next The election is set for December 2. Early voting is November 12-26, according to the Tennessee secretary of state's office. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as “Likely Republican.”
