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Bihar will cast its vote beginning with the first phase of the assembly elections on November 6, and it promises to be a riveting start. The first phase of the election will cover 121 assembly constituencies across 18 districts, setting the tone for the overall outcome as high-profile candidates of the NDA and Mahagathbandhan go up against each other in key seats. Several heavyweight leaders will face the electoral test, including deputy chief ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, alongside opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav and his estranged brother Tej Pratap Yadav. Other big names in this phase include JD(U) state president Umesh Kushwaha and RJD’s Bhola Yadav, who is a close aide of party chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. Celebrities have also entered the race, such as Bhojpuri actor Khesari Lal Yadav (RJD) and popular folk singer Maithili Thakur, who is contesting on a BJP ticket. This phase will witness a total of 1,314 candidates after an initial 1,690 nominations were filed between October 10 and 17. Among the districts covered, Muzaffarpur, Kurhani, Mahnar, and Bahadur will have the highest number of contestants with Kurhani and Muzaffarpur featuring the maximum at 20 each. Alauli and Parbatta, meanwhile, will have the fewest with only five candidates each and, in state capital Patna, 149 candidates are contesting with Paliganj witnessing the highest at 14 candidates. WHAT ARE THE KEY SEATS AND FIGHTS? Based on the prominence of candidates, electoral history, and local caste dynamics, several assembly constituencies stand out as crucial battlegrounds in the first phase. Raghopur (Vaishali District): Tejashwi Yadav, RJD Historically known as a family bastion of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s clan, Raghopur boasts strong Yadav demographics. It will see a high-stakes battle with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav going up against candidates of the NDA and Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party. The odds seem to be in favour of the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face as he won the seat in the last two polls in 2020 and 2015 with strong margins. Tejashwi will go up against the same rival in Satish Kumar Yadav of the BJP, whom he has defeated twice before. But, there seems to be a third entrant this time in Chanchal Singh of the Jan Suraaj Party. Satish Kumar, however, has previously pulled off a major upset against Lalu Prasad’s wife and former CM Rabri Devi in 2010. Tarapur (Munger District): Samrat Choudhary, BJP Tarapur, which has traditionally been a JD(U) stronghold, will see another high-profile contest. While the seat has consistently had straight fights between the RJD and JD(U), this time deputy CM Samrat Choudhary of the BJP will contest the election from this seat. As part of the seat-sharing agreement, the JD(U) gave up this constituency to the BJP this time. It features a significant presence of Kushwaha, Yadav, Muslim, and SC voters. This prestige battle will take place between Samrat Choudhary and the RJD’s Arun Kumar. Lakhisarai (Lakhisarai District): Vijay Kumar Sinha, BJP Lakhisarai will be one of the most closely watched constituencies as it is the home ground for another deputy CM, Vijay Kumar Sinha of the BJP. A senior BJP leader and the current Speaker of the state assembly, he is contesting for a sixth term. The seat is crucial due to caste factors like Yadav, Bhumihar, and OBC voters, as well as development issues. Sinha will be challenged by Suraj Kumar of the JSP, but the BJP has built a strong base here winning three consecutive times in 2010, 2015, and 2020 due to robust Bhumihar and upper-caste voter support. This is, perhaps, one of the safest seats for the NDA in the Munger region. Mahua (Vaishali District): Tej Pratap Yadav, Janshakti Janata Dal Lalu Prasad’s estranged son, Tej Pratap Yadav is the one to watch out for in this constituency that will see a triangular contest. The fight will be fuelled by an intra-Yadav family feud as he goes up against a candidate of the RJD, his former party, but he has won this seat once before in 2015. This time, Tej Pratap will have to fend off a challenge from incumbent RJD MLA, Mukesh Kumar Raushan, and Sanjay Singh of the LJP. He is contesting under his own outfit, Janshakti Janata Dal, after being expelled from the RJD amid allegations of political conspiracy levelled by him against his family members. Alinagar (Darbhanga District): Maithili Thakur, BJP Another interesting constituency to watch out for in the Mithilanchal region, it has garnered attention because the BJP has fielded popular folk singer Maithili Thakur as a candidate. The youngest candidate in the poll fray, she will face RJD’s Binod Mishra, who was the runner-up in the 2020 polls. The seat had long been an RJD stronghold until the previous election when the Vikassheel Insaan Party’s Mishri Lal Yadav emerged victorious. Hasanpur (Samastipur District): Raj Kumar Ray, JD(U) Hasanpur is set for a direct fight between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan. While the constituency was held by the JD(U) for two consecutive terms before 2020, the dynamics shifted when Tej Pratap contested from the seat and won the last election. Mala Pushpam of the RJD will face the JD(U)’s Raj Kumar Ray, who is an incumbent minister. Since Tej Pratap is contesting from Mahua this time, it remains to be seen whether the constituency will return to choosing Ray. Harnaut (Nalanda District): Hari Narayan Singh, JD(U) Closely linked to Bihar CM Nitish Kumar for decades, Harnaut holds deep political significance as it was the seat from which he first entered the assembly in 1985. It remains a stronghold for his party, JD(U). The fight is between Hari Narayan Singh of the JD(U), who is seeking re-election against Congress candidate Arun Kumar and Kamlesh Paswan of the JSP. He has tasted success from this seat in both 2015 and 2020.
