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Mon: RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaksWed: CPI (Q3)Thu: Trade price index (Q3)Fri: Private sector credit (Sep), Producer Price Index (Q3) International: Mon: US — Durable goods (Sep)Tue: US — Home prices (Aug), Consumer confidence (Oct)Wed: US — Federal Reserve (FOMC) rates decision, Advanced goods trade balance (Sep)Thu: US/CN — Presidents Trump & Xi meet EU — ECB rates decision JP — BoJ rates decision US — GDP (Q3)Fri: US — Core PCE inflation (Sep) CN — Manufacturing and services PMIs (Oct) Monetary policy is back big time this week. The central banks of the US, Euro Zone and Japan all meet — only the US is expected to cut. The Fed is, to an extent, flying blind, given the ongoing federal government shutdown has dried up the data flow, apart from Friday's CPI figures. The important data the FOMC (the rate-setting body) is missing is unemployment, but a cut is likely anyway, given it had been trending higher before the shutdown. Other US data scheduled for release this week, such as durable goods orders, Core PCE inflation and the advanced goods trade balance, are likely to be delayed. Private sector releases such as home prices and consumer confidence will be posted. The other big event of the week is the expected meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in South Korea. There have been preliminary talks over the weekend, so an idea of agenda items will probably start dribbling out into the media in the coming days, and already there have been positive comments from both sides. Officially ditching the threat of the 100% US tariffs on Chinese goods would likely ratchet equity markets higher. Locally, the main interest centres on Q3 inflation (Wednesday). This is the RBA's "go to" reference, given the incomplete nature of the monthly data. The most relevant figure for rates — trimmed mean CPI — is expected to have risen 0.8% over the quarter to remain steady at 2.7% year-on-year; in other words, within the RBA's inflation target band. A result like that would do little to change the betting that RBA remains on hold in November.
