Copyright thehindubusinessline
A bipolar contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposing Mahagathbandhan has eclipsed prospects of the third hopeful — debutant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) — as Bihar prepares to vote in the first phase of polling in 121 constituencies spread across 18 districts on Thursday. The fate of Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha as well as Mahagathbandhan leader and chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav will be sealed in the first phase. Campaigning was marred by violence following the murder of JSP supporter Dularchand Yadav in Mokama. Tension prevails in Mokama, where voting is scheduled on Thursday, after the arrest of Janata Dal (United) candidate Anant Singh in connection with Dularchand Yadav’s murder. In Anant Singh’s stead, Union Minister and senior JD(U) leader Lallan Singh has been campaigning in Mokama. A consolidation of the Bhumihar votes is expected to favour his party. An FIR was registered against the Union Minister after he made a provocative appeal to his supporters, asking them to “not allow some opposition leaders to step out of their homes on voting day”. The polarisation of dominant caste votes is expected to work in the ruling coalition’s favour in this seat. Besides the localised violence, another critical aspect of the campaigning so far has been the overwhelming participation of women in public rallies. Besides caste — that remains the strongest determinant of electoral outcome in Bihar — women have emerged as a separate support base. They largely support Chief Minister Nitish Kumar because of his consistent women-centric policies. These include the distribution of bicycles to school-going girls, reservation of women in panchayats and local bodies, ban on liquor, and the ongoing disbursement of ₹10,000 under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana. businessline spoke to women across the caste spectrum and found that their support for Nitish Kumar is largely intact. “We feel safe. We are encouraged to study and work. Who has done so much for us,” said Anita Devi in Vaishali assembly constituency. Despite his failing health, Nitish Kumar has remained the backbone of NDA’s campaign. He has not addressed any press conference nor given any interview. He reads from a written text in public rallies as opposed to his hitherto personalised, spontaneous interactions during elections. But that has not diminished his stature and appeal among the voters. While women-centric welfarism is aiding NDA’s campaign, the two rival alliances are simultaneously vying for the winning social combination. Within the NDA, Nitish Kumar’s appeal extends to extremely backward classes (EBCs) while the BJP consolidates upper caste votes. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) along with Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) bring in different SC groups within the NDA fold. Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party adds more EBC sub-groups to the alliance. In the Opposition camp, the main constituent, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) comes with its classic Muslim-Yadav support. The CPI(ML)(Liberation)’s support base is largely among Dalits and EBCs. Congress too is expected to consolidate the Dalits and Muslims in the alliance. The addition of Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is expected to add the critical Mallah subgroup among the EBCs to the coalition. Another addition to the opposition alliance is I. P. Gupta of the India Inclusive Party (IIP) which commands some support among the Tanti-Paan subgroup among the EBCs. Published on November 5, 2025
