Copyright Forbes
The price of XRP is currently trading near $2.45, marking a notable decline of 33% from its July all-time high of $3.65 and 15% lower than its level a month ago. Although the near-term price trend appears weak, several key fundamentals indicate that this pullback could actually represent an appealing buying opportunity for patient investors. The main driver behind this recent softness is the delay in SEC decisions on XRP spot ETF filings, a consequence of the recent government shutdown. This regulatory pause has understandably weighed on short-term sentiment. While several asset managers have initiated the 20-day automatic approval window under Section 8(a), the continuing regulatory ambiguity around these filings remains the key factor pressuring XRP prices. Unless the SEC steps in with objections, these spot ETFs are expected to launch later this month. The big question now is: what happens to XRP once ETFs are approved? We believe prices could surge beyond $5. We’ll explore why in the sections below. Still, if you prefer potential upside with lower volatility than holding an individual token like XRP, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a blend of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—delivering more than 105% returns since inception. Why? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks generated superior returns with lower risk than the benchmark index, resulting in smoother performance, as shown in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. What Could Drive XRP to $5? The ETF catalyst appears imminent. XRP satisfied the regulated futures trading requirement in November following listings on major derivatives platforms earlier this year. Market consensus now views spot XRP ETF approval as highly likely. Once ETFs begin trading, institutional inflows could accelerate, potentially propelling prices beyond $5—more than 2× current levels and marking a new cycle high. MORE FOR YOU But Why $5? Historical Precedent: Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Rallies The reasoning lies in precedent. When spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, Bitcoin climbed from about $40,000 to over $70,000 within six months—a 75% gain. Over the 12 months after approval, it traded above $100,000, representing 150% gains. That rally was fueled by billions in retail and institutional inflows, driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Likewise, when Ethereum’s spot ETF approval was announced in May 2024, ETH rose from below $3,000 to nearly $3,900 within weeks and continued trending higher once trading began. Despite subsequent volatility, strong institutional demand and ETF legitimacy drove sustained momentum. These examples illustrate how spot ETF launches can dramatically shift sentiment and ignite major rallies. Is There Real Business Growth Underneath? Yes. Real-world asset (RWA) value on the XRP Ledger reached $364.9 million by mid-October 2025, up 4.3% in 30 days. Even more striking, RWA transfer volumes jumped 42% over the month, underscoring growing institutional use. Ripple’s $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury in October 2025 expanded its corporate treasury presence, while Evernorth—a Ripple-backed entity—is raising over $1 billion via a SPAC merger to create an institutional XRP treasury, validating XRP’s utility for cross-border settlements beyond trading. What Are the Risks? Could prices stay weak? Yes. Despite solid fundamentals, technical signals remain soft, with key support near $2.20 under pressure. The SEC could still delay or deny ETF approvals, and the wider crypto market faces macro headwinds. Concerned about downside risks for XRP? See our analysis – How XRP Price Falls To $1. Analysts also note that a portion of Ripple’s XRP supply remains locked in smart-contract escrow. Each month 1 billion XRP is released, but Ripple re-locks roughly 70–80% of unused tokens back into escrow. This managed release structure helps avoid supply shocks, so actual market impact is far lower than headline numbers suggest. This process is expected to continue for years. As always, investing in a single asset without proper diversification can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its benchmark—a mix of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000 indices—to deliver strong long-term returns. Why? Its quarterly rebalanced blend of large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks helps capture upside in bull markets while limiting losses in downturns, as seen in RV Portfolio performance metrics. The Verdict For those with a 2–3 year view, current levels may prove highly attractive if ETF approvals arrive and institutional adoption expands. Conservative investors might wait for official confirmation, while risk-tolerant buyers could start averaging in now, acknowledging the volatility ahead. Overall, XRP has cleared regulatory milestones, is showing robust on-chain growth, and stands at the threshold of transformative institutional interest. If ETFs are approved—as they were for Bitcoin and Ethereum—XRP could stage a similar run above $5. The setup is promising, though risk discipline remains essential.
