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Photo Illustration by Mateusz Slodkowski/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. Revenue is projected to increase by approximately 16% year-over-year to reach $8.54 billion, according to consensus estimates, while earnings are expected to grow 11% to $4.32 per share. Revenue growth is likely to be driven by ongoing increases in gross dollar volume (GDV) – an essential metric of total spending across the Mastercard network — as global consumer expenditure remains robust. Additionally, cross-border volume is anticipated to remain strong, supported by a continued recovery in international travel and tourism, especially in Europe and Asia. Furthermore, Mastercard’s growing array of value-added services, including data analytics, cybersecurity, and fraud prevention, is expected to contribute to some revenue growth beyond core transaction fees. The company currently has a market capitalization of $500 billion. Over the past twelve months, it has generated revenue of $30 billion and has remained operationally profitable, with $18 billion in operating profits and a net income of $14 billion. While the outcome heavily relies on how the results compare to consensus expectations, recognizing historical trends may give event-driven traders an edge. There are two methods to achieve this: either by analyzing historical probabilities and positioning oneself before the earnings report is announced, or by studying the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release, and adjusting strategies accordingly afterward. That being said, if you're looking for upside with lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers a viable alternative — having surpassed the S&P 500 and yielding returns exceeding 105% since its creation. Mastercard’s Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Return Here are some observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: MORE FOR YOU Over the last five years, there are 20 recorded earnings data points, yielding 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. In summary, positive 1D returns have occurred approximately 50% of the time. However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we examine only the last 3 years instead of 5. The median of the 10 positive returns is 2.3%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -1.8% Additional statistics for the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are compiled along with the accompanying statistics in the table below. 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively low-risk strategy (though it becomes unhelpful if the correlation is weak) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying the pair with the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader may decide to take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Please note that the correlation labeled 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), resulting in substantial returns for investors. Conversely, if you prefer potential upside with a steadier experience than an individual stock like Mastercard, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved returns greater than 105% since its inception. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions
