Copyright CBS News
It's the biggest question our weather gets asked these days: What will our winter be like? Well, we have some answers for you. Let me preface this first by saying, it's too early. In reality, it's always too early to make snowfall predictions and monthly expectations. Daily weather can change by a single degree, so there are parts where a seven-day forecast is needed more, and others where an overall outlook is sufficient. That's what we have for you today. La Niña Our winter forecast wouldn't be anywhere close to accurate without talking about La Niña. ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, is the pattern of temperature and pressure in the Pacific Ocean that we track every year. It has 2 distinct phases called El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral. When we have an El Niño during the winter, the season tends to be warmer and drier overall in southeast Michigan. During a La Niña winter, the season is wetter and closer to average for temperature overall. This line graph shows all the model expectations for the coming months, grouped at the bottom of the chart, three months at a time. You'll notice how all modeled solutions keep the chart between 0.0 and -1.0 through March. This denotes a likely La Niña event for the winter, although the strength is weaker instead of stronger. This chart may be easier to understand as it divides the space between all three phases. We are already in a weak La Niña, and the expectation is about 50% that it will last through the winter months. As we approach March and April, it becomes increasingly likely that an ENSO Neutral phase will take over. Winter Outlook 2025-2026 So you may be saying, "Cut to the chase." I can give you some good bets on what our winter will look like when comparing it to other weak La Niña years, our climate science, and my own personal experience with Michigan winters. In a situation like what we see for the winter, odds are we end up pretty close to average for our temperatures overall. This means yes, you'll still get some random warm days, and bitterly cold as well, but overall we'll stick near normal when it's all averaged together by the end of it. As for precipitation, that's likely above average due to the pattern. Now, what does this mean for snowfall? Higher precipitation plus an average or slightly below temperature naturally means our odds are better for snow. Now this does not determine the type of snow, like the wet and heavy stuff, or the dusty kind of snowfall that's easy to shovel. It does mean our chances at reaching our average snowfall, around 42 to 45 inches for the season, are more likely, and the chance absolutely exists to go above average. Another important note is that our lakes are very warm for this time of year, and our air is cooling off nicely. This combination creates the perfect environment for lake-effect snowfall, which means the snow belts and even some spill-over in Southeast Michigan are likely to be higher than usual. As with any forecast, we continuously monitor it and adjust as needed. However, you can rest assured that the NEXT Weather Team will track every single flake and drop that moves our way.
