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US stocks closed the first trading session of the week in the green amid risk-on sentiment as the US Senate took the first steps over the weekend to end the US government shutdown, alongside continued positive US/China trade developments. Sectors were predominantly firmer with mega-cap sectors Technology, Communications, and Discretionary outperforming with all Mag-7 names in positive territory, while Consumer Staples was one of few industries in the red. USD marginally softened to start the week amid the broader risk-on sentiment due to a couple of factors, including the positive US-China trade headlines and progress regarding the US government shutdown, in which the Senate voted to advance the government funding bill through the procedural hurdle. In the more recent updates, House Speaker Johnson wants a vote "as soon as possible" and is seeking a Wednesday vote on the stopgap bill, while Senate Majority leader Thune later said the vote on the stopgap spending bill is still in a 'holding pattern' and it was unclear if it would happen on Monday. Elsewhere, newsflow has been sparse, although there were several comments from Fed officials including Miran, Musalem and Daly, but did little to spur price action. Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & NAB Business Confidence, Japanese Current Account Balance & Eco Watchers Survey, New Zealand Inflation Expectations, Supply from Japan. More Newsquawk in 2 steps: 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & NAB Business Confidence, Japanese Current Account Balance & Eco Watchers Survey, New Zealand Inflation Expectations, Supply from Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. US TRADE US stocks closed the first trading session of the week in the green amid risk-on sentiment as the US Senate took the first steps over the weekend to end the US government shutdown, alongside continued positive US/China trade developments. Sectors were predominantly firmer with mega-cap sectors Technology, Communications, and Discretionary outperforming with all Mag-7 names in positive territory, while Consumer Staples was one of few industries in the red. SPX +1.54% at 6,832, NDX +2.20% at 25,612, DJI +0.81% at 47,369, RUT +0.97% at 2,456. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump said they are making a deal with India, which is different to the one in the past, and they are getting close. US President Trump posted on Truth "The “Pay Back” Number on tariffs... are much higher than those being stated by our Fake Opposition...would be in excess of $2 Trillion Dollars". China’s Commerce Ministry responded to the US suspending 301 measures, in which it stated it is an important step in realising consensus and looks forward to the US continuing to meet China halfway. China’s Commerce Ministry said they were making adjustments to management catalogues of drug-related precursor chemicals and will require a license for export of certain chemicals to the US, China, Canada and Mexico. EU reportedly eyes banning Huawei from mobile networks of member countries, with the European Commission exploring making its 2020 guidance on excluding high-risk telecom vendors legally binding, according to Bloomberg. Switzerland is nearing a deal to cut the US tariff on its exports to 15% from 39%, with an agreement possible within two weeks. Negotiations accelerated after Swiss executives met with US President Trump, who directed USTR Greer to intensify talks, while Switzerland seeks relief as the initial levy hurt growth and pushed unemployment to a four-year high, according to Bloomberg. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Miran (voter) said a potential end to the government shutdown does not change his outlook by much and he still sees a 50bps cut in December absent new information, according to an interview with CNBC. Miran said it is reasonable to be incrementally more dovish and reiterated that policy should be forward-looking, while he noted that barring new information that makes him update his forecasts, he sees a 50bps rate cut in December, and a minimum of 25bps. Furthermore, he said it is imperative to ease policy and that staying the path on rate cuts is the right move, but noted that the Fed is divided. Fed's Musalem (voter) said the US economy has been pretty resilient and the Fed has enough information to make policy decisions. Musalem said real rates have declined by 250bps in the last year, of which 150bps were for insurance, and that it is important to tread with caution with limited room to ease further. Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said policymakers need to keep an open mind about further rate cuts and need to be on guard against inflation risks, but should not ignore the possibility of a productivity boom and faster non-inflationary growth. Daly said policy is in a good place and that she does not want to make the mistake of holding rates too long, while she does not see evidence that monetary policy does not transmit to the economy. US Senate Majority Leader Thune said they will be voting on a stopgap package in the near future, hopes the vote can happen within hours, while he looks forward to taking up more appropriations bills soon and will try to make an ACA deal in the Senate and get it to the House. Thune later said the vote on the stopgap spending bill is still in a 'holding pattern' and it was unclear if the vote would happen on Monday. US House Speaker Johnson is seeking a Wednesday vote on the stopgap bill, while he will not commit to an ACA subsidy vote. US House Minority Leader Jeffries said he will continue to fight for an extension to ACA tax credits, and sees reasons to be sceptical of the Republicans. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury and the IRS have issued new guidance giving crypto ETPs a clear path to stake digital assets and share staking rewards with their retail investors. Apple (AAPL) reportedly pulled the next-gen iPhone Air off its release schedule next fall, while manufacturing partners have already stopped or cut production of the first iPhone Air, according to The Information. OpenBrand price data suggested US consumer durables and personal goods inflation decelerated in October for the first time in three months, according to Bloomberg. FX USD marginally softened to start the week amid the broader risk-on sentiment due to a couple of factors, including the positive US-China trade headlines and progress regarding the US government shutdown, in which the Senate voted to advance the government funding bill through the procedural hurdle. In the more recent updates, House Speaker Johnson wants a vote "as soon as possible" and is seeking a Wednesday vote on the stopgap bill, while Senate Majority leader Thune later said the vote on the stopgap spending bill is still in a 'holding pattern' and it was unclear if it would happen on Monday. Elsewhere, newsflow has been sparse, although there were several comments from Fed officials including Miran, Musalem and Daly, but did little to spur price action. EUR was ultimately flat and kept to within relatively tight parameters in the absence of any notable catalysts from the bloc. GBP benefitted alongside strength in cyclicals, but with the upside in GBP/USD capped by resistance just shy of the 1.3200 level. JPY weakened with USD/JPY returning to 154.00 territory as the heightened risk appetite sapped haven demand. FIXED INCOME T-notes were pressured amid broad risk-on trade owing to US government reopening optimism. COMMODITIES Oil prices ultimately settled firmer but with gains capped in choppy trade amid a lack of headline newsflow. Ukraine's Special Forces said it struck a Russian oil depot in Crimea. Russia's Lukoil declared a force majeure at Iraq's West Qurna-2 and warned Iraq that it could exit if the force majeure persists, according to Reuters sources. Codelco copper production fell 7.2% Y/Y in September to 115.6k tons and Escondida copper production rose 16.8% to 118.6k tons, while Collahuasi copper production fell 26% Y/Y to 38k tons. GEOPOLITICAL MIDDLE EAST Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will implement the ceasefire with an iron hand. Israeli government spokesperson said Israeli PM Netanyahu and US Envoy Kushner discussed Hamas demilitarising Gaza and ensuring that Hamas does not have a role in Gaza ever again. Israeli official told Al-Arabiya that if the Lebanese army does not take the initiative to disarm Hezbollah, Israel will do so. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Kremlin said regarding US President Trump's remarks about ending the war in Ukraine in the not-too-distant future, that Russia would also like to end the conflict as soon as possible, while Russia remains open to resolving the conflict through diplomacy, but the situation is stuck. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES China issued measures on boosting private investment and will also encourage private capital to invest in railway and nuclear power, while it will clean up "unreasonable" access restrictions for the services sector. China will also guide private capital to participate in low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace and other fields in an orderly manner, as well as meet reasonable credit demand for private firms, according to Xinhua. Japan released its growth panel recommendations for an economic package, while it is mulling chips, critical minerals and defence in the package, and is to aim for higher revenue without tax hikes. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Reeves said it would be possible to stick with the manifesto but would require deep cuts in capital spending, and that a lot of challenges have been thrown the UK's way, while she added that they are looking at both taxes and spending in the Budget. Loading...
