Copyright kyivpost
US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping could reshape the current approach to pressuring Moscow to end the war, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, told Kyiv Post. Trump and Xi are set to hold talks in Asia on Oct. 30. “Today, these are, in my opinion, undoubtedly key negotiations, which in one way or another can directly and indirectly influence both the course of the war and the end of the war as such,” Podolyak told Kyiv Post in an exclusive interview. He said there are several key levers to help Trump influence Moscow – such as Russia’s dependence on Beijing. Russia ‘completely dependent on China’ Podolyak said the US has taken a clear position on Russia’s unwillingness to end the war and engage in realistic negotiations, referencing the recent US sanctions on Russian oil. But Podolyak said Russia is also relying on China for other resources. “On the other hand, we have Russia’s absolute dependence on Chinese suppliers of goods and the purchase of a large number of the same energy carriers,” he said. “That is, Russia makes money on China and is completely dependent on it.” Podolyak suggested that Beijing’s support allows Russia to continue its war in Ukraine. “Russia, in principle, is able to wage war solely based on China’s capabilities. No matter how paradoxical it may sound: Without China, Russia is not a subject at all,” he added. Podolyak argued that Russia is “not independent” despite Moscow’s claims of being self-sufficient. “It is not independent. It is, rather, a vassal state with a large amount of resources and a military component, but all of this depends on China,” Podolyak added. Beijing has the power to influence Moscow, Podolyak emphasized, adding that the war also affects the global economy – meaning countries have all the reason to help bring Russia’s invasion to an end. “That is, it is obvious that the war should be ended. It is strategically disadvantageous for so many countries to be in conflicts [with one another] because it has a destructive effect on mutual relations, international law, and economic and trade relations,” he said. “Therefore, of course, if the emphasis is placed correctly in the negotiation process between Trump and Xi, we will be able to reach clear outlines of ending the war in Ukraine,” he added. More US-China meetings likely needed Podolyak also believes a single meeting will not yield immediate results, as the complex negotiations encompass global energy distribution and trade relations. “We have already seen the first part of the preliminary negotiations in Malaysia, in order to restrain the mutual repressive actions of the United States towards China, and China towards the United States. I mean the issue of tariffs,” he said. “Therefore, it is obvious that within the framework of the bilateral negotiations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, we can expect a more or less clear format of global relations that will be achieved for the coming decades.” “But this is not a matter of one or two rounds of negotiations. This is a rather long discussion that will continue between these two countries,” he added. He also did not rule out that the upcoming Xi-Trump meeting would result in an agreement that would pave the way for future cooperation. “If there is a document, it will be a document that should emphasize the willingness of countries to cooperate, given that the system of global relations has changed,” he said. Podolyak suggested that both the US and China have reasons to restore the international rule-based order – whatever those rules might be. “The point is that China also has the right to influence global political and economic rules. The US undoubtedly has such a right today. Moreover, liberal democratic countries are rallying around the US, who want the rules to continue to work: This is what the Russian Federation has broken,” he said. “And other countries are rallying around China, which also want, in my opinion, certain rules to work that will guarantee relations,” he added.
