Copyright Newsweek
Some of President Donald Trump’s voters are leaving Republican New York City mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa for former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, according to a new poll. Newsweek has contacted the Sliwa and Cuomo campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters While Republicans make up a minority of voters in the liberal bastion of New York City, they have been uniquely powerful in this year’s mayoral race. Cuomo has sought to build a coalition of Republicans, independents and moderate voters to defeat Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani. Sliwa, who ran for mayor in 2021, has faced calls to exit the race to give Cuomo a boost among Republicans. A new Emerson College poll released on Thursday found that Sliwa is indeed losing Trump voters to Cuomo compared to his 2021 run, though Mamdani still holds an overall lead among the city’s electorate. What To Know Most Trump voters are sticking with Sliwa, with 66 percent saying they would support the Republican candidate in next week’s election, according to the Emerson poll. But Cuomo, a former Democratic governor running as an independent, is winning over 32 percent of them. The poll found that less than 2 percent of Trump voters planned to vote for Mamdani. Across all voters, Mamdani led with 50 percent, compared to Cuomo’s 25 percent and Sliwa’s 21 percent. An additional 5 percent said they were still undecided or planning to vote for other candidates. The poll, which surveyed 640 likely voters between October 25 and October 27, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Winning over Republicans is critical for Cuomo. The majority of Democrats—including 70 percent of those who backed then-Vice President Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential race—are planning to vote for Mamdani, meaning Cuomo must turn elsewhere for support. Sliwa’s candidacy has made that a more difficult feat, as most Republicans still plan to support their party’s candidate over Cuomo, who served as a Democratic governor for more than a decade and was a vocal Trump critic during the president’s first term in office. Sliwa has resisted calls to exit the race, as some Cuomo supporters have argued his decision to stay on the ballot only splits the Republican and centrist vote, bolstering Mamdani’s prospects. Rich Azzopardi, a Cuomo spokesperson, told Newsweek on Thursday that Sliwa was a “spoiler” who couldn’t win the election. “You may like Curtis Sliwa, but he can’t win, he can only be a spoiler, making a vote for him a vote for Socialist Zohran Mamdani and his anti-public safety, pro-prostitution agenda that will also destroy our education system,” he said. “Cuomo kept spending under control, cut taxes for middle-class New Yorkers and has the experience to manage this great city and hit the ground running on Day One." For comparison, an Emerson poll from October 2021 showed Sliwa winning a higher percentage of Trump voters—74 percent compared to Democrat Eric Adams’ 8 percent. An additional 17 percent were still undecided in that poll. What People Are Saying Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, told Newsweek: “For weeks this has been a tightening race with early voting showing a surge of older voters—the exact inverse of the primary—and turnout on track for between 1.9 and 2 million. With those dynamics, every poll out there is essentially meaningless from this point out.” Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa wrote on X on Wednesday: “When NYC was on fire during the 2020 riots, Cuomo blamed the police instead of the rioters. Mamdani called to defund the NYPD and Cuomo agreed. When you vote for Sliwa for Mayor, you vote to support law enforcement, restore order, and protect our city. A vote for Cuomo is a vote for Mamdani.” Emerson College Polling Director Spencer Kimball wrote in a memo: “Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics, increasing his margin among Black voters since last month, from 50 percent to 71 percent, whereas Cuomo dropped 10 points among Black voters since September. Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69 percent of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37 percent of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31 percent support Cuomo and 28 percent Silwa.” What Happens Next The 2025 New York City mayoral election is scheduled for next Tuesday, and early voting is underway. Candidates are expected to spend this weekend making their final pitches to voters and working to get their supporters to the polls.
