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A big question now will revolve around Washington’s willingness and ability to enforce these measures. A strict regime could mean refusing to allow “licenses” or any other exemptions for buyers of Russian crude such as China, India or Turkey. It could also mean tougher messages to buyers that they will be exposed to secondary sanctions unless they move fast to find alternative supplies. “And if they don’t stop, actually imposing secondary sanctions on a few of them,” said Edward Fishman, a former US State Department official now at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, who believes that the outcome depends on how Washington uses its leverage.
