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U.S. President Donald Trump declared he could persuade Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel by the end of the year, expressing hope the kingdom would join the Abraham Accords. But those expectations are likely to be disappointed. Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has more urgent goals. MBS is preparing for his first visit to the United States in seven years. According to experts cited by The New York Times, normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel could take years, not months. The visit, scheduled for mid-month, will focus on negotiating a mutual defense agreement similar to the unprecedented security guarantee Trump granted Qatar following Israel’s failed strike in Doha and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s subsequent public apology to Qatari officials. According to a U.S. official and another source familiar with the visit’s preparations, Riyadh also seeks to acquire F-35 stealth fighter jets for its air force and to advance talks for access to U.S. technology that would enable a civilian nuclear program. The trip will be MBS’s first to Washington since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul — an incident that Turkish officials said was carried out by 15 Saudi agents and that severely strained relations between Riyadh and Washington. Securing a defense pact and nuclear cooperation deal — even without formal congressional approval, as MBS initially sought — would still be seen as a major victory for the crown prince. The Biden administration has held discussions with him on both issues but has insisted that, in return, Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel. Those talks were frozen after the war in Gaza erupted more than two years ago. In an interview with TIME two weeks ago, Trump said he believed he was “very close” to a deal under which Saudi Arabia would establish diplomatic relations with Israel, predicting it would happen before the end of the year. “They couldn’t do it during the war,” he told Fox Business last month. “Now, with the cease-fire, it will happen.” However, Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi, who is close to the kingdom’s leadership, told The New York Times that such a deal this year was “almost impossible unless there’s a miraculous change inside Israel.” Shihabi said MBS believes normalization could occur only if Israel takes an irreversible step toward recognizing a Palestinian state. According to Shihabi, normalization with Israel remains “the last major leverage the Arab world has over Israel” regarding the Palestinian issue. “The kingdom wants to use that card to help resolve the problem once and for all and bring regional stability,” he said. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, asked last week about potential Saudi-Israeli normalization, sparked outrage when he said: “If Saudi Arabia tells us ‘normalization in exchange for a Palestinian state’ — then no, thank you. Keep riding camels in the Saudi desert.” Hours later, after widespread criticism, Smotrich apologized on social media: “My remark about Saudi Arabia was certainly inappropriate, and I regret the offense it caused. At the same time, I expect the Saudis not to harm us or deny the Jewish people’s historic rights in Judea and Samaria, and to pursue genuine peace with us.”
