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South Korea’s intelligence agency has reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter is consolidating her position as a potential heir, but analysts urge caution over the latest news as they point to Pyongyang’s silence on the 12-year-old’s name. They also voiced scepticism over the National Intelligence Service’s (NIS) assessment that Kim could hold a fourth summit with US President Donald Trump around March next year. Observers say there is little sign the regime has begun laying the groundwork for a formal succession process for Kim’s daughter, Ju-ae. “North Koreans do not even know her name, as the North’s propaganda outlets – including the ruling party’s official daily, Rodong Sinmun – have never publicised it, referring to her only as the ‘respected’ or ‘beloved’ child of the leader,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, told This Week in Asia. “There is little indication that the party’s propaganda machine has begun any campaign to idolise her, as Ju-ae is still too young to assume an official title within the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.” In a closed-door briefing to the National Assembly’s intelligence committee on Tuesday, the NIS reportedly said Ju-ae was “consolidating her position as a likely successor”. The main points of the session were later conveyed to the media by lawmakers, including Park Sun-won of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, a former deputy NIS chief. Ju-ae made her diplomatic debut when she accompanied her father to Beijing in September for China’s Victory Day military parade. However, she was notably absent from the parade itself. She has not been seen in public since September 4, when she was spotted arriving at Pyongyang Station with her father upon their return from Beijing. She was also missing from the viewing stand during North Korea’s own military parade in Pyongyang on October 10. In contrast, two years earlier, during a similar parade, she sat next to the leader as ageing generals bowed deeply to her. Ju-ae’s increased public appearances had fuelled speculation that Kim might be accelerating efforts to position her as his eventual successor. Her sudden disappearance from public view might indicate that Pyongyang had adjusted its approach to avoid drawing excessive public attention to the young daughter, the NIS suggested. “This change may be intended to curb overblown speculation about the succession issue and refocus public attention on Kim Jong-un himself,” it said. Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said the NIS’ earlier conclusion that Kim’s oldest child was a boy born in 2010 appears to be incorrect, noting that Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, was still performing as a member of an art troupe at the time. “Photos of her from 2010 suggest she was not pregnant then,” he said. According to Hong, Ju-ae is the eldest of three children. She has a brother, born in 2017, and a sister, born in 2021. “She is still too young to be presented as a potential successor before party members,” he said, pointing out that North Koreans must reach the legal age of adulthood – 18 – to join the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. There is also little sign that the party’s organisational apparatus is preparing narratives for her succession. “Instead, Ju-ae is being used as a symbol of Kim’s message that the safety of future generations will be guaranteed by the nuclear deterrent built under his leadership,” he said. “When her brother grows up, she is likely to end up like a marathon pacemaker – taking the lead for a while and then handing over the position to him at the right moment.” The NIS also told lawmakers that Kim remained in “generally good health”, despite his obesity and underlying conditions. The agency said his heart rate was around 80 beats per minute and that the risk of hypertension had decreased. But Cho Han-bum, another senior analyst at KINU, questioned that assessment. “Kim stands about 1.7 metres (five feet seven inches) and weighs roughly 145kg (320lbs). He’s a heavy smoker,” he said. “His obesity is extreme. I don’t agree that his health problems are minor. I wouldn’t be surprised if he collapsed tomorrow.” Another Trump-Kim summit? Experts were also doubtful of the agency’s assessment that Trump and Kim could attempt to revive their personal diplomacy around March next year. Trump repeatedly expressed his willingness to meet Kim during his visit to South Korea for last week’s Apec summit, though the much-anticipated encounter did not take place. The NIS said it had detected indications that Kim had been considering such a meeting up until the last minute. “The possibility of a future North Korea–US summit remains high,” the agency said. The NIS further observed that Pyongyang had recently softened its tone towards Washington since Kim’s late September address to the Supreme People’s Assembly, in which he hinted at the possibility of conditional talks with the United States. “But Trump and US officials remain trapped in their 2018 perception – that Kim would trade denuclearisation for partial sanctions relief and a declaration to end the Korean war,” Hong said. “It’s unlikely that Washington will recognise North Korea as a nuclear-armed state and the strategic leverage that comes with it.” The NIS reported growing signs of additional North Korean troop deployments to Russia, citing frequent visits by senior defence officials from Pyongyang. According to the agency, more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers are currently performing security duties near the Russia-Ukraine border while another 1,000 are engaged in mine-clearing operations. Pyongyang’s ties with Beijing have also grown stronger. “Since the North Korea–China summit in September and the recent visit to Pyongyang by the Chinese premier – the first in 16 years – high-level exchanges have been revitalised,” the agency said. “Expectations are rising inside North Korea that China will soon resume humanitarian aid, including consumer goods, especially as the new Yalu River Bridge is expected to open by year’s end.” It estimated that North Korea’s trade with China in September increased by nearly 50 per cent from August. Inter-Korean relations, however, were deteriorating. “Pyongyang has issued orders to strictly enforce a ban on contact with South Korean organisations and to maintain differentiated approaches towards Seoul, effectively shutting off any space for improving ties,” the NIS reported. Noting that Pyongyang “is increasingly describing the two Koreas as separate states”, the agency said the North could revise its constitution to enshrine the “two-state theory” in which “the North and South are recognised as distinct sovereign entities”.
