Copyright Newsweek
The Boston Red Sox said goodbye to one of the pitchers who was instrumental in getting them to their first postseason since 2021 this week, when they declined to extend a $22.05 million qualifying offer to veteran right-hander Lucas Giolito. The decision officially allowed the 31-year-old, 10-year veteran to become a free agent where, according to the sports business site Spotrac, he is estimated to command a three-year, $61.3 million contract. But from who? According to baseball analyst Sara Molnick of the site Pinstripes Nation, Giolito could end up in pinstripes, pitching next season for the Red Sox archrivals, who eliminated them in the American League Wild Card Series this year, the New York Yankees. Other estimates of Giolito's free-agent market value come in somewhat lower than the Spotrac estimate. MLB Trade Rumors sees the former Washington Nationals first-round draft pick signing for two years at $32 million. Tim Britton of The Athletic projects that Giolito receives a three-year deal for $57 million. For the Yankees, according to Molnick's analysis published Friday, those projections remain "reasonable" for the Yankees. "Despite his injury history, industry estimates suggest Giolito could secure a multiyear deal,' Molnick wrote. "His 2025 performance proved that he can still log innings, miss bats, and contribute in a contending environment. The right-hander averaged 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and maintained a 1.18 WHIP, showcasing improved command and consistency." Giolito was signed by Boston as a free agent prior to the 2024 season, but missed that whole year after an elbow injury at the outset of spring training that required reconstructive surgery. More MLB: Red Sox Lose Lefty-Mashing 10-Year Veteran to Free Agency: Report Because Giolito was not extended the qualifying offer, he may be signed by the Yankees — or any other team — without giving up draft-pick compensation. "For the Yankees, the combination of affordability, experience, and zero draft penalties makes Giolito an intriguing option," Molnick wrote. "As the offseason progresses, his name will likely remain high on their radar as they look to reinforce a rotation that remains central to their 2026 postseason ambitions." The former Chicago White Sox All-Star also experienced some sort of flare up in his previously injured elbow that ended his season this year on Sept. 23 and though the injury was not considered serious, it kept him off Boston's postseason roster. As a result, in the deciding Game 3 of the wild card Series against the Yankees, the Red Sox were forced to send rookie Connelly Early, making only his fifth major league start, to the mound. Though Early held his own in the game ultimately lost by Boston, Giolito's unavailability may have been one of the factors that soured the Red Sox on the idea of retaining Giolito, potentially allowing him to defect to the Yankees as a free agent.
