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How We Rate Rumors 0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources 21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain 41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence 61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence 81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources RUMOR ASSESSMENT 65% Probable TSMC estimated to offer each 2nm wafer for $30,000 gave rise to speculation that the increased costs were too much for Qualcomm and MediaTek to fathom, with both companies exploring Samsung as an alternative to fulfill their 2nm chip orders. At the time, it seemed like a sensible approach from both SoC manufacturers, but supply chain sources do not believe that this transition will take place, with the latest report highlighting two reasons why. Supply chain sources also say that 2nm wafer costs have reached an acceptable level, otherwise, Qualcomm and MediaTek could have waited a whole year to switch to the advanced lithography Unnamed sources have informed DigiTimes that the reports mentioning a possible partnership happening between Samsung, Qualcomm and MediaTek may be a ‘broader South Korean tech industry narrative.’ For one thing, the report mentions that the timing makes the transition impossible, and for any kind of adjustments to happen place using Samsung’s 2nm GAA technology, the first chipset utilizing this lithography would launch in 2027, not 2025. IC design sources have mentioned that such rumors are unlikely because next-generation SoCs have typically been finalized or taped out. Come to think of it, MediaTek announced that it had successfully completed the tape-out of its first 2nm silicon and it was scheduled to arrive in late 2026, but the foundry partner was not mentioned, eventually forcing these rumors to take some shape or form. Coming to TSMC’s 2nm pricing conundrum, the report says that Qualcomm and MediaTek have willingly wanted to keep the technological pace with Apple because costs have ‘reached an acceptable level.’ Both Qualcomm and MediaTek had the choice to let Apple be an entire generation ahead of them, but have likely decided to stick with TSMC because they feel that 2nm wafers might not be as outrageously expensive as industry reports are clamoring. The only time that Qualcomm and MediaTek were a generation behind Apple in the lithography race was when they unveiled the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and Dimensity 9300, respectively, and this was the time when TSMC’s first-generation 3nm process, also known as N3B, was utilized. For those who do not know, Apple’s tape-out costs alone for M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max on this manufacturing process were estimated to be $1 billion, which is a massive sum for any company to undertake. Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 and Dimensity 9500 estimated prices give weight that Qualcomm and MediaTek could adopt a dual-sourcing strategy with Samsung and TSMC, even if it happens a few years after Of course, while supply chain sources have their fair share of wisdom, we also have to look at earlier reports and give our best judgment accordingly. According to current chipset pricing estimates, the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 costs $280 to make, while the Dimensity 9500 can go up to $200. Even if MediaTek manages to stay under $300 per unit when it introduces the Dimensity 9600 next year, the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 could easily cross this figure thanks to TSMC charging $30,000 per 2nm wafer. Additionally, why would Qualcomm continue to deal with Samsung, requesting samples for the 2nm GAA version of the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 for evaluation, if it will keep TSMC as its sole foundry partner? Perhaps it was to form a potential partnership that materializes a few years from now. Korean media also has a habit of hyping up business deals that could be nothing but hot air, but that is how the industry operates. Even the faintest of rumors will pick up steam and reach hundreds of outlets, even if it is not true, and that is something completely out of our hands. Our gut feeling is that if Qualcomm and MediaTek do not place 2nm orders with Samsung, they will probably monitor the technology behemoth’s 2nm GAA process and the Exynos 2600. If the chipset exceeds expectations, perhaps a partnership might form sooner rather than later. News Source: DigiTimes
