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The weather for Halloween week will be very interesting. There are increasing signs that a new coastal storm will begin to develop along the East Coast and possibly push into portions of New England mid- to late next week. This is a very long-range forecast and there are still lots of questions six or seven days out, but parts of the Eastern Seaboard could once again be impacted by another early-season nor’easter with more strong winds and heavy rain. The good news is that if such a storm did impact us in New England, the end of the month features astronomically low tides, so other than intense wind and rain, coastal flooding is unlikely to be a part of any late October surprises. If you look at the computer models that are trying to capture the evolution of this potential nor’easter, you’ll see they all agree that a strong trough of low pressure is forecast to develop late in the weekend and early next week. A trough is when you have a big dip or a U-shape in the jet stream. The more amplified the trough, the greater the potential for a storm. In the case of this potential nor’easter, the axis of the trough, or its center, will help determine how close to the coastline the storm ultimately comes. If the trough is more offshore than the storm will pass safely out to sea. If the trough is centered to our west, then the storm will be driven northward and across New England. Sometimes upper-level configurations can even become closed, where the “U” wraps around itself and becomes a circle, or a closed system. If this happens, the storm can literally get stuck and move very slowly. This can prolong the clouds and rain. Right now, forecast models are indicating that this low-pressure system could develop somewhere between the Georgia coast and the Mid-Atlantic. Multiple scenarios are possible at this point, and forecasting this specific storm’s intensity, timing, and track is still very much up in the air because so much needs to play out over the next couple of days. But it is worth bringing the potentials to light, with Halloween approaching on Friday and the possibility of impacting the kiddos’ trick-or-treating. However, two things are certain: Most of the storm models favor the birth of a coastal storm, and some rainfall and gusty winds will come to New England at some point next week. Plenty of prognosticators on social media are guaranteeing storm impacts, but there are just too many factors that haven’t evolved yet to guarantee anything at this point. This storm would be the second nor’easter this month to arrive at our door. Southern New England bore the brunt of a nor’easter that came through Columbus Day weekend, dumping nearly 7 inches of rain in parts of eastern Massachusetts and generating up to 65-mph wind gusts. Despite the heavy rainfall, New England was spared the worst of the storm, which was centered over the Mid-Atlantic. What the models are saying The GFS storm model has the nor’easter forming closer toward the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, and the storm would then move into New England by Wednesday and last most of Thursday before clearing up mostly by Halloween festivities on Friday. The Euro model has the nor’easter forming closer to the Carolina coast late Monday through Tuesday, and accelerating rather quickly up the coast toward New England. Showers could enter the picture as early as Wednesday afternoon, with the bulk of the storm arriving on Thursday. This scenario would keep Halloween trick-or-treating and any parties mostly in good shape, with perhaps only a few lingering scattered showers getting in the way. Again, we can’t stress enough, this forecast will likely change. As the storm models continue to gather data and process updates of the atmosphere, the forecast will become clearer by the end of the weekend as to how any potential storm may or may not impact us here. We’ll keep you posted as we continue to monitor how this possible nor’easter will unfold.
