Copyright Newsweek
As Disney and YouTube TV’s standoff entered its second week, millions of subscribers were denied access to live sports and primetime programming. Now, Wall Street analysts have begun tallying the cost. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne, Disney is losing roughly $30 million per week while its linear channels — including ESPN and ABC — stay off YouTube TV, a figure that works out to about $4.3 million a day. The blackout began when the last carriage deal ran out in late October, and ever since, both sides have painted the fight as one over leverage and price. The outage affects not only ESPN and ABC but other Disney-owned linear networks as well — a substantial hit given YouTube TV’s reported subscriber base of more than 10 million users. YouTube TV says it won’t sign off on a deal that shortchanges its users or nudges them toward Disney’s apps, while Disney claims YouTube is simply trying to pay less than fair value for premium shows. While the two sides remain locked in negotiations, fans of both the NFL and college football are bearing the brunt, losing access to scheduled broadcasts and Monday Night Football, along with DVR features on impacted channels. Read More: Jaguars Rookie Travis Hunter Hit With Devastating Injury Setback Read More: Bengals’ Joe Burrow Return Date Emerges After Injury Update In an effort to mitigate backlash, YouTube TV has introduced a $20 bill credit for impacted subscribers, accompanied by reimbursement instructions via email. However, while the credit reduces out-of-pocket pain on an $80-plus monthly bill, it does not restore lost programming or DVR functionality, and is reportedly claimable rather than automatically applied. From a business standpoint, the timing is difficult for Disney. ESPN remains central to its media profits, and with an earnings call set for Thursday, Nov. 13, analyst Rich Greenfield told Puck’s John Ourand it’s hard to envision Disney stepping into that meeting while its key sports distributor remains offline. "I can’t imagine Disney going into earnings on Thursday without a deal," Greenfield said. "This is such a big part of ESPN’s revenues and profits. I just can’t fathom getting on the earnings call and being dark still." YouTube says it’s open to a fair deal but accuses Disney of twisting the facts, while Disney insists talks are ongoing and its programming is worth the price. Both sides ultimately stand to benefit from restoring access, so a compromise could come soon, but for now, the blackout is costing Disney real revenue and showing how tough it is to balance power between streaming and old-school media.
