Copyright International Business Times
More than half of Americans believe it is very or somewhat likely that a political candidate will be assassinated in the next five years, according to a new POLITICO/Public First poll. The survey reflects widespread expectations of rising political violence, cutting across party, age, gender and education, as 51% of Trump voters and 53% of former Vice President Kamala Harris' voters shared that view. Overall, 55% of respondents said they expect political violence to increase, according to the survey. Robert Pape, a University of Chicago political scientist who has tracked political violence for decades, told Politico that the country is no longer "on the brink," but instead "firmly in the grip of it," describing the environment as one of "violent populism." The survey, conducted after the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year, found that most Americans reject political violence outright, reflected in the fact that 64% said violence is never justified. However, 24% said there are circumstances in which violence could be justified. That view shows a generational divide: more than one in three Americans under 45 agreed, compared with much smaller shares among older respondents. The poll also captured concern over a series of high-profile incidents that have touched both parties in recent years. These include attempts on former President Donald Trump's life in 2024, the 2022 attack that seriously injured Paul Pelosi, the attempted kidnapping of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the 2022 plot against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and the firebombing of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's residence. The assassination of Kirk in September, however, has drawn renewed attention to the trend. Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA and an ally of Trump, was killed while speaking to a crowd of approximately 3,000 A Reuters analysis in the wake of the Kirk assassination identified more than 300 politically motivated violent acts between January 2021 and the 2024 election cycle, the largest wave since the 1970s. At least 21 people have been killed this year, according to the report, 14 of them in an attack in New Orleans by a jihadist claiming loyalty to the Islamic State early on New Year's Day. "Extreme political violence is increasingly becoming the norm," said Jon Lewis, of George Washington University's Program on Extremism, to Politico, while Pape cautioned that as support for political violence enters the mainstream, "the more it grows, the more it seems acceptable to volatile people." Law enforcement officials are tracking heightened threats. Politico revealed that U.S. Capitol Police investigated nearly 10,000 concerning statements or threats against lawmakers, staff and families last year.
