No. 3 Texas Tech at No. 22 Missouri prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats
No. 3 Texas Tech at No. 22 Missouri prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats
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No. 3 Texas Tech at No. 22 Missouri prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

🕒︎ 2025-11-07

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No. 3 Texas Tech at No. 22 Missouri prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

Game Details and How to watch Texas A&M at Missouri Date: Friday, November 8th, 2025 Time: 3:30PM Eastern Site: Memorial Stadium City: Columbia, MO TV/Streaming: ABC Game Odds for Texas A&M at Missouri The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings: Moneyline: Missouri Tigers (+220), Texas A&M Aggies (-270) Spread: Texas A&M Aggies -2.5 (-105) Total: 47.5 points Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule! Lets dive into each team and find a few bets for this blockbuster. Texas A&M Aggies School: Texas A&M Head Coach: Mike Elko 2025 Record: 8-0 Offense Ranking: 2nd Defense Ranking: 21st Strength of Schedule: 22nd Team Overview Texas A&M enters Week 11 as one of the most complete teams in the country, boasting an 8-0 record and a top-5 overall SP+ ranking with elite offensive efficiency (2nd in Off. SP+), a disruptive front seven (3rd in overall havoc rate), and a retooled passing attack that ranks top-10 in both yards per dropback and pressure rate allowed. Despite allowing some chunk plays defensively (126th in marginal explosiveness) they compensate with a relentless pass rush (2nd in sack rate, 7th in pressure rate) and a secondary that forces opponents into third-and-long at one of the highest rates in the nation. Offensively, the Aggies are surgical on standard downs, where they lead the country in success rate (58.2%) and pair it with top-10 marks in first downs per completion and explosive pass plays. With a remaining schedule that includes winnable matchups against Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, and a season-defining rivalry finale at Texas, Mike Elko’s squad holds a 73.8% chance of reaching 11+ wins and has carved out a legitimate path to the College Football Playoff. The Texas A&M Aggies Offense Texas A&M’s offense has been a revelation in 2025, surging to No. 2 nationally in SP+ behind a brutally efficient attack that ranks first in success rate (58.2%) and pairs it with explosive downfield strikes (23.4% of completions go for 20+ yards, 7th nationally). Quarterback play behind Marcel Reed has been dynamic, ranking 11th in yards per dropback (8.4) and 17th in ANY/A (10.9), while the offensive line has been nearly impenetrable allowing pressure on just 1.5% of dropbacks (5th nationally) and posting a top-10 blown block rate. The run game is steady, gaining 5.3 yards per non-sack carry with a strong 2.35 yards before contact (19th), and the red zone execution has been surgical with a 75% TD rate (12th). Despite a fast tempo and penalty-prone tendencies, Collin Klein’s unit is averaging 2.82 points per drive and ranks top-20 in both EPA/play and yards per play, making the Aggies one of the most consistently dangerous offenses in the country. Player to Watch: QB Marcel Reed Marcel Reed has been the catalyst of Texas A&M’s offense, starting all eight games while producing 1,972 passing yards and 17 touchdowns to just six interceptions. His 61.4% completion rate is respectable, but it’s his 14.4 yards per completion and 9.7 adjusted net yards per attempt that show off his explosive vertical ability within OC Collin Klein’s scheme. Reed has also added value as a dual-threat runner, averaging 6.83 yards per carry and scoring six rushing touchdowns while generating 4.02 yards before contact per attempt—making him a nightmare to contain when plays break down. Despite absorbing only a 2.6% sack rate, his 11.8% sack-per-pressure clip shows impressive poise under fire and has helped him compile a 76.9 Total QBR. The Texas A&M Aggies Defense Texas A&M’s defense has evolved into a front‑seven wrecking machine under DC Jay Bateman, ranking 3rd nationally in overall havoc rate with a devastating 10.1% DL havoc rate (4th) and 5.4% from the linebackers (29th). The Aggies live in the backfield, ranking 2nd in the country in sack rate on passing downs (10.4%) and 7th in overall pressure rate, while holding opponents to just 5.1 yards per play and a stingy 35.5% success rate. Their run defense is built on violent first contact, giving up only 0.73 yards before contact per carry (17th) and stuffing 18.3% of opponent rushes, while still limiting explosives to just 7.1% of plays. If there’s a vulnerability, it’s in red zone finishing (131st in points allowed per scoring opportunity) and low turnover creation, but snap‑to‑snap this is one of the SEC’s most disruptive, physically overwhelming defenses. Player to Watch: Edge Cashius Howell Cashius Howell has emerged as Texas A&M’s premier edge disruptor, stacking 14 havoc plays and a team‑best 9.5 sacks through eight games while maintaining a perfect 100% tackle efficiency. His 18.1% pressure rate on 171 pass‑rush snaps highlights a consistent ability to win 1‑on‑1s, and he leads the Aggies with 30 first pressures — the kind that derail drives before they start. Howell’s 9 sacks created illustrate that even when he isn’t the finisher, he’s still the catalyst for chaos in the backfield. With three penalties drawn and zero missed tackles recorded, he’s not just explosive — he’s disciplined, efficient, and the tone‑setter for a front seven ranked top‑10 nationally in havoc rate. Missouri Tigers School: Missouri Head Coach: Eli Drinkwitz 2025 Record: 6-2 Offense Ranking: 27th Defense Ranking: 10th Strength of Schedule: 16th Overview Missouri has emerged as one of the most balanced teams in the SEC, boasting a top-15 overall SP+ ranking (No. 15) behind a stingy defense (10th in Def. SP+) and a surgically efficient offense (27th). The Tigers are among the nation’s best in success rate (16th on offense, 6th on defense), third-down conversions (15th offensively, 5th defensively), and overall havoc creation (9th), though they struggle with explosive plays and rank a paltry 116th in Special Teams SP+. Offensively their quick-strike passing game (69% completion rate, 72.3% adj. completion rate) is supported by a dominant OL that allows pressure on just 1.7% of dropbacks (11th). Defensively, Missouri leans on an elite pass rush (1st in pressure rate) and ranks 8th in yards per dropback allowed, helping mask middling red zone efficiency and turnover production. The Missouri Tigers Offense Missouri’s offense is trying to overcome the loss of starting QB Beau Pribula and ranks 16th nationally in success rate while sitting just 89th in marginal explosiveness, meaning they stay ahead of the chains but rarely hit home runs. The Tigers run the ball on 61% of standard downs and are one of the best rushing teams in the country by success rate (50%, 16th), averaging 5.8 yards per carry with an excellent 3.14 yards after contact. QB play from Pribula and new freshman starter Matt Zollers has been highly accurate, combining to complete 69% of passes (14th) with a 72.3% adjusted rate. However, the passing game lacks the ability to stretch the field, ranking just 117th in rate of completions gaining 20+ yards. Thanks to one of the best offensive lines in the SEC (1.7% pressure rate allowed, 11th nationally), Missouri moves the ball methodically, ranks 15th in 3rd-down success rate, and averages 2.91 points per drive despite a below-average explosiveness profile. Player To Watch: RB Ahmad Hardy Ahmad Hardy leads Missouri’s ground game with 937 yards and 11 touchdowns on 159 carries, producing an exemplary 5.89 yards per rush and a 50.3% success rate. He’s a consistent chain-mover with one first down every three carries and only 15.1% of his runs going for zero or negative yards. While not overly explosive (15.7% of runs went 10+ yards), Hardy’s physicality shows in his strong 3.95 yards after contact per carry and 0.37 missed tackles forced per rush. In the passing game, he’s caught 5 of 6 targets for 17 yards while operating exclusively out of the backfield. The Missouri Tigers Defense Missouri’s defense is one of the most disruptive units in the country, ranking top 10 nationally in success rate allowed (6th), overall Havoc rate (9th), and pressure rate (1st) despite blitzing at just the 44th-highest rate. The Tigers suffocate opposing passing games, allowing just 4.7 yards per dropback (8th), a 54.2% completion rate (8th), and ranking 9th in passing down success rate defense. They excel on money downs, sitting 5th in third-down success rate allowed (27.2%) and 6th on passing downs, and they own the nation’s best third-and-3-to-6-yard defense (21.4%). The biggest knock is red zone inconsistency, as they rank just 59th in points allowed per scoring opportunity and 28th in goal-to-go TD rate, showing occasional bend when backed up. Player To Watch: Edge Zion Young. Edge Zion Young has emerged as Missouri’s most disruptive front-line defender, tallying 15 total havoc plays, including 11 tackles for loss and 5.0 sacks over 8 games. His 88.6% tackle rate is one of the highest among Tigers’ defensive linemen, and his 87.1% run tackle rate reflects his well-rounded ability to set the edge. As a pass-rusher, Young has registered 22 pressures on 156 rushes (14.1% pressure rate), generated 4 sacks on his own, and forced 2 fumbles showing an advanced knack for timing and finishing plays. Though his 9.3% third-down pressure rate is modest, his consistent early-down disruption and turnover creation make him one of the SEC’s most impactful edge presences. Texas AM and Missouri team stats, betting trends Texas A&M is on a streak of 3 straight road wins Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 as a road favorite 13 of Texas A&M’s last 16 road games have gone over the Total Rotoworld Best Bets Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700. Eric Froton’s Best Bet: HC Eli Drinkwitz has indicated Missouri doesn’t intend to change the complexity of their passing scheme after true freshman QB Matt Zollers took over as starter 1 game ago. Despite their defense being a credible unit, Texas A&M has created just 6 turnovers over 8 contests. With true freshman Zollers likely to put the ball in the air around 30 times in order to keep pace with the potent A&M offense, I like the Aggies to break the trend and pick off the freshman. Accordingly, I like the Over 0.5 Interceptions line on Missouri QB Matt Zollers. Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts. Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager. Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Texas A&M and Missouri: Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline. Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Missouri Tigers at +6.5. Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 47.5. Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)

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