Copyright Newsweek
The latest New Jersey gubernatorial election polling from Emerson College shows Democratic U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill maintaining her lead over rival Jack Ciattarelli, but by only 1 percentage point—compared with a much more substantial edge for the Democrat in a Quinnipiac poll ahead of the critical vote next week. Newsweek reached out to Sherrill and Ciattarelli’s campaigns via email on Thursday afternoon for comment. Why It Matters The New Jersey election has turned into one of the most heated litmus tests for President Donald Trump’s influence and Republican support following a turbulent first year back in office: Should Sherrill win, it could show resilience in the Northeast, which has reliably voted for Democrats in years past. New Jersey has not backed a Republican for governor since 2013, during former Governor Chris Christie's reelection, or a Republican presidential nominee since 1988, when it backed former President George H.W. Bush. But in 2024, Trump improved his share of votes in the Garden State by around 10 points compared with 2020, marking the strongest showing for the state in two decades, and a win for Ciattarelli would indicate continued growth for the Republicans in suburban areas, setting the stage for further gains against Democrats. What To Know The latest Emerson College poll published Thursday—with just five days left until the election—found that Sherrill holds a 1-point lead over Ciattarelli, with 3 percent of voters still undecided or saying they would vote for someone else. However, when projecting the way the undecided voters would likely break, Emerson found that it was a net gain for Sherrill, who would extend her lead to 2 points over Ciattarelli. Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball attributed this to the gender divide in the election, with men breaking for Ciattarelli by 16 points and women for Sherrill by 18 points. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherrill’s lead among women grew by eight points,” Kimball said. A notable aspect of the data is related to opinions of current Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who has seen his approval drop off year over year following the pandemic. More favorable polling from Monmouth University and Reuters-Eagleton found him to have from 47 to 50 percent approval after hitting around 67 during the pandemic. But Emerson College found that support had dropped even further, hitting around 34 percent approval—worse than Trump, who holds a 45 percent approval rating among New Jersey’s likely voters. A Quinnipiac University poll also released on Thursday found Murphy with a poor favorability rating of around 45 percent compared to 47 percent disapproving. Among those who approve of Murphy, 97 percent plan to vote for Sherrill, while 91 percent of those who disapprove will vote for Ciattarelli. As unsurprising as that is, what many might find surprising is that those who remain neutral on Murphy—around 16 percent of those polled—79 percent plan to vote for Sherrill as opposed to 12 percent for Ciattarelli. In its polling, Quinnipiac found a greater divide between the two candidates, with 51 percent support for Sherrill and 43 percent for Ciattarelli, finding that those who prioritized taxes backed the Republican while those who prioritized health care and ethics in government backed the Democrat. Quinnipiac, however, found 5 percent either undecided or voting for another candidate, while 1 percent declined to respond. The numbers overall show little change from polling conducted two weeks earlier, but it added another layer to the scenario in finding that independent voters narrowly back Ciattarelli, by 47 percent compared to 44 percent for Sherrill. The poll also found a similar gender divide, with 57 percent of women backing Sherrill while 50 percent of men back Ciattarelli. What Happens Next The New Jersey gubernatorial election will take place November 4, along with the New York City mayoral election and many other contests across the country.
