Copyright Newsweek
California Governor Gavin Newsom has suffered a setback in early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential race, with new surveys showing his support slipping. The latest Noble Predictive Insights poll, conducted between October 2-6, shows that among Democrats and independents Newsom is now trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2028 nomination, after leading her in August. Newsweek has contacted representatives of Newsom and Harris for comment via email. Why It Matters The battle to become the 2028 presidential election candidate will likely set the new direction for the Democratic Party as it struggles with net favorability at what one recent poll showed to be a three-year low. Neither Harris nor Newsom has formally announced their candidacy. What To Know According to the poll, Harris is leading the 2028 Democratic field with support from 33 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of Independents. Governor Newsom trailed well behind, earning 13 percent among Democrats and just 3 percent among Independents, while 17 percent of respondents said they were undecided about their choice in a potential Democratic primary. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ranked third, with 8 percent of support among both Democrats and Independents, followed closely by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent. It comes after Newsom received a significant bump in the polls after launching a barrage of sharp attacks on President Donald Trump on social media in August, with the governor's office transforming its social media presence into a barrage of all-caps taunts, pop culture spoofs, and AI-generated memes—mocking the president's style. In an early August POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey, Newsom led Harris 25 percent to 19 percent among the state's registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents. Harris has largely avoided the spotlight since her unsuccessful 2024 presidential campaign. She recently passed up the opportunity to run for California governor, saying she doesn't "want to go back in the system" for now. That is despite the fact that polls showed that her candidacy in the California gubernatorial race would have a field-clearing effect. But polling now suggests Newsom's support has dipped. The Noble Predictive Insights poll showed that Harris outperformed her rivals across nearly every major demographic, drawing particularly strong backing from Black voters (54 percent), Southerners (40 percent), and younger Americans—44 percent among those aged 18 to 29 and 42 percent among those 30 to 44. She was also roughly twice as popular as Newsom among women and lower-income voters earning under $50,000 a year (36 percent to 18 percent). Newsom, however, led Harris among two key groups: voters in the West (30 percent to 25 percent) and older Americans aged 65 and above (29 percent to 18 percent). He and Harris were nearly tied among white, college-educated, and higher-income voters earning more than $100,000 annually, with only one- or two-point differences separating them. Ocasio-Cortez was the second choice among voters under 30, drawing 15 percent support compared with Newsom’s 12 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker tied for fifth place with 4 percent each, followed by Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer at 3 percent and Maryland Governor Wes Moore at 1 percent. What Happens Next Most candidates do not announce presidential runs until after the midterm elections, which are set for November 2026.
