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Each week of the 2025 NFL regular season, I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses and fantasy options who could benefit. What’s a Funnel Defense? A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late. Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week. With more data, this analysis will improve. It happens every season. We are eyeball deep in data headed into Week 10. Pass Funnel Matchups Patriots vs. Bucs Regular readers of the column are something short of stunned to see the Bucs in the pass funnel section. That’s the way it goes though. Some teams are weekly targets because they force opponents into pass-heavy (or run-heavy) game plans. Tampa opponents have passed the ball at a 61 percent rate this season. That’s jumped to 64 percent over their past three games. Six of eight teams to face the Bucs this season have been well above their expected neutral pass rate. Two weeks ago we saw the Saints go 22 percent above their expected neutral pass rate against these Bucs. No one really tries to establish it against Tampa. A New England offense with the third lowest rate of rush yards before contact and no difference-making running backs doesn’t have a prayer to run the rock against the Bucs front seven, giving up the third lowest EPA per rush through Week 9. This makes every Patriots back a thin bet to deliver anything for fantasy purposes. And it makes the team’s pass catchers far more appealing than usual, especially Stefon Diggs. Kayshon Boutte’s Week 9 hamstring injury should open up more routes and targets for Kyle Williams and possibly Demario Douglas. I wrote up Douglas in this week’s Regression Files because, well, he’s cooking, and he’s commanding targets at a startling rate from one of the NFL’s best downfield passers in Drake Maye. Hunter Henry, with a route participation around 70 percent, could be a deep-league streamer if you squint hard enough to give yourself a 24-hour migraine. Maye and the Patriots have been over their expected pass rate in five of their past six games, partly because their running backs stink and partly because the team appears increasingly comfortable with letting Maye cook. Only five teams have been more pass-heavy than the Pats since Week 5. They’ll have no qualms about letting it rip against Tampa’s pass-funnel defense. Falcons vs. Colts I’ve written more than a couple times in this space that the Falcons want nothing more than to operate an offense straight out of the late 1970s, when quarterbacks were plumbers and there were no rules against inflicting permanent physical damage to a ball carrier. They might not be able to pull off that little trick in Week 10 against the Colts because the Colts -- as you may have guessed by now -- are a pronounced pass funnel. Through Week 9, only the Jaguars have seen a higher neutral pass rate (64 percent) against them. Indy opponents have been 5.5 percent above their expected pass rate in neutral situations this season. Just last week, the usually-balanced Steelers offense was almost 10 percent above its expected pass rate in neutral game script against these horseshoes. The Colts rush defense isn’t a world beater. They’re allowing the NFL’s eighth-highest rushing success rate. A review of the metrics tells a clear story: They’re a middling run defense that can be had in the right situations. The Falcons entering this game as 6.5-point underdogs suggests Atlanta won’t be in position to establish the way they usually do. Probably this doesn’t matter much for Bijan Robinson because he’s involved in the team’s passing game. It matters quite a bit for Tyler Allgeier, who is hardly involved at all when the Falcons are in trailing script. Obviously Drake London is the primary beneficiary here. But inflated drop back volume for Atlanta could put Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts in play as quietly solid Week 10 plays. Pitts has seen an unusually strong target profile of late. Since Week 6, his 26 percent targets per route ranks ninth among all tight ends. The Colts, meanwhile, allow the fourth highest rate of targets to the tight end position. Run Funnel Matchups Dolphins vs. Bills Buffalo’s rush defense is so putrid they left Andy Reid no choice but to get crazy with the run in Week 9. Only three teams last week had a lower neutral early down pass rate than Kansas City, the pass-heaviest team in the NFL. Miracle of miracles: The Chiefs established it. The Bills this season have faced the NFL’s lowest pass rate over expected (-4.3 percent). Only the Dolphins and Vikings have faced a lower neutral pass rate. A spate of defensive injuries — including a season-ending triceps injury for run stuffer Ed Oliver — practically invites Bills opponents to keep it on the ground. That the Dolphins were 7 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 3 against these Bills didn’t mean much for De’Von Achane’s rushing output. He had 62 yards on 12 rushes (and seven catches for 29 yards). Ollie Gordon, however, had nine rushes for 39 yards and a touchdown. Miami averaged a healthy 5.2 yards per carry in that matchup. This Bills-Dolphins game profiles as a potentially ugly one for pass catchers on both sides of the ball. Both defenses are extreme run funnels and both offenses have shown a willingness to do the run-first thing when given the chance. In that sort of matchup, the clock is bled, drop backs are limited, and pass catchers reliant on unsustainable efficiency -- here’s looking at you, Dalton Kincaid -- have trouble getting there for fantasy purposes. If the Dolphins — entering this week as massive 9.5-point dogs — can avoid blowout game script, we should see another run-first approach against a Buffalo front seven allowing the seventh highest rate of rush yards before contact. That puts Achane in the proverbial smash spot and it could mean double digit touches for Gordon, who practiced Wednesday despite his minor ankle injury. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has said more run game involvement for Gordon was part of his ideal offensive approach. Panthers vs. Saints I’ve very much wanted the New Orleans defense to be a funnel defense because game script is almost always against them, allowing teams to operate the way they want to operate. Well, the Saints finally qualify as a legit run funnel: No team over the past five weeks has faced a lower neutral pass rate, and their past three opponents have been below their expected neutral pass rate (a stark difference from the season’s first six weeks). Carolina’s mind-blowingly run-heavy offense is set up nicely for another run-first game in Week 10 against the Saints. The Panthers sport the NFL’s lowest pass rate over expected. They’ve become even more radically run-first over the past month, going 10 percent below their expected pass rate. No other team is close. Rico Dowdle, who’s reportedly dealing with an ankle issue, has every chance to post another eye-watering stat line in Week 10 against a Saints defense with the fourth highest rate of missed tackles per carry. Chuba Hubbard, after losing his starting gig to Dowdle, could have some standalone value here if the Panthers enjoy some good game script. Don’t completely dismiss Hubbard — who had five rushes in Week 9 — in deeper formats.
