Copyright walesonline
Former Labour MP Wayne David has written a blog suggesting there is only one reason Labour was trounced in Caerphilly during last week's by-election. Mr David, who served as the Caerphilly MP from 2001 to 2024, said it's "vitally important" to understand the context behind Labour's historic loss, claiming it can be boiled down to Labour voters "lending" their vote to Plaid Cymru in order to stop Reform UK winning seats in Wales. In the by-election last week Welsh Labour suffered a historic defeat in Caerphilly and saw their vote share plummet by almost 35% compared to the 2021 Senedd election. Plaid Cymru 's Lindsay Whittle was elected as the new Senedd member for the area, a seat which Labour had held since devolution. Labour came a distant third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform with just 3,713 votes compared to Plaid's 12,113 and Reform's 15,961. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here Opposition politicians including Mr Whittle claimed the result showed Labour was "dead" in Wales and Keir Starmer admitted Labour needed to "reflect and regroup" after the defeat. Writing for the Labour List, Mr David suggested that the key reason why his party failed to perform well in the constituency was because people voted to stop Reform winning their first Senedd seat. He also suggested that levels of support for Labour and Plaid Cymru were similar at the mid-point of the campaign and blamed a Wales-wide opinion poll for pushing people towards Plaid in order to stop Reform. He wrote: "The result has been depicted by much of the media as a huge setback for Labour, or worse. While it would be foolish to pretend the result does not require the Labour Party , and to a lesser extent Welsh Labour, to examine why support was lost to Plaid, it is vitally important to understand the context in which many people switched their support from Labour to Plaid and their tactical motivation for doing so. "For most of the campaign Reform UK were the front runners but as the campaign developed Reform UK were increasingly seen as being profoundly divisive outsiders who had no understanding of, or empathy with, the communities which make up the constituency." Mr David said that during his time speaking with "hundreds of people" across the constituency which he knows so well it became clear that Reform were "polarising". He wrote: "By the mid-point of the campaign it was clear that opinion in the constituency was polarising – people were either ‘for’ or ‘against’ Reform UK. "At this point the level of support for Labour and Plaid was not hugely different but a Wales-wide opinion poll gave the impression that Plaid was the main challenger to Reform. During the closing stage of the campaign many Labour supporters therefore ‘lent’ their support to Plaid to stop Reform UK. "As one Labour Party member told me: 'The important thing in this by-election is to send Reform packing. Nothing is more important than that.' This sentiment was reinforced by the fact that the successful candidate will only hold the seat for six months as the next full Senedd election will be in May 2026." Mr David's comments come after First Minister Eluned Morgan admitted it was a "bad result" for Labour . Speaking to WalesOnline after the historic defeat on Friday, she said: "There's no question it was a bad result. I think this result demands really serious thinking on all levels of government and that's certainly what we'll be doing in the next few days and weeks." But she suggested the party still has time to "turn things around" and said they will be "listening" to what voters said on doorsteps. "The people of Caerphilly sent us a message. We’ve heard it and we’ll act on it. You have my word," she said. When asked about Mr David's piece a Reform UK Wales spokesperson said: "Reform’s impressive performance in Caerphilly is a testament to the positive, local campaign we put forward. While Labour smeared their opponents and dragged politics into the gutter, Reform talked about upgrading local health services and bringing money back to our left-behind communities. "That’s why Labour are now finished in Wales and why the Senedd elections will be a choice between extremism with Plaid Cymru or common sense politics with Reform.” A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: "Wayne David’s comments show just how out of touch Labour have become. After taking communities like Caerphilly for granted for generations they still refuse to listen to what people are actually telling them. "Voters didn’t just reject Reform’s division last week, they also rejected a Labour Party that’s given up on Wales and no longer stands for the values it once claimed to represent. In Caerphilly people voted for Plaid Cymru because we’re rooted in our communities, we stand up for Wales against a Westminster system that doesn’t work for us, and we offer real, progressive change driven by Welsh values. "Labour may be in denial about it but the message from Caerphilly couldn’t be clearer - people want something better for Wales and this is something Plaid Cymru is ready to deliver ahead of next May’s Senedd election."
