Copyright Newsweek
Republican Representative Elise Stefanik formally entered the race to unseat New York Governor Kathy Hochul on Friday, calling the Democrat leader the “worst governor in America” in her announcement. Most polls show Hochul leading, with a recent Manhattan Institute survey finding Stefanik favored. Newsweek has reached out to Hochul’s press team for comment via email on Friday, and reached out via phone to Stefanik’s press team. Why It Matters New York is viewed as a reliably Democratic state, with New York City, as well as other areas such as Albany, Buffalo and Rochester, having kept it blue in most recent federal races. On Tuesday, voters elected Hochul-endorsed Democrat Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s mayor. However, Republicans have made some inroads with some Empire State voters recently. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received less than 56 percent of the vote in New York last year, the weakest performance for a Democrat in decades. A Republican has not won the state’s top spot since Governor George Pataki was re-elected in 2002. What To Know Stefanik’s Friday announcement confirms previous speculation that she was going to enter the race, with some polls dating back to June revealing data on a potential match up. In her announcement, she said that the state has become the “most unaffordable state in the nation with the highest taxes, highest energy, utilities, rent, and grocery bills,” under Hochul’s leadership. “I am running for Governor to make New York affordable and safe FOR ALL,” Stefanik wrote on X. Hochul, who won her election in 2022 by a smaller-than-expected margin, is running to keep her seat next November. She had taken up office the year prior following the resignation of then-Governor Andrew Cuomo. She is facing a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado, though early polling suggests she has an advantage among Democratic voters. Hochul campaign communications director Sarafina Chitika told Newsweek in an email Friday, “Sellout Stefanik is Donald Trump’s number one cheerleader in Congress and his right-hand woman in his war on New York: gutting health care, jacking up costs with expensive tariffs, and cutting funding for our police, schools, and hospitals.” Stefanik is known as a strong President Donald Trump ally, and according to the Center for American Progress Action Fund, as of September, Stefanik voted with Trump 100 percent of the time. Earlier this year Stefanik was named to become the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, however her nomination was pulled over concerns about the House’s slim Republican majority. Chitika continued: “Apparently, screwing over New Yorkers in Congress wasn’t enough; now she’s trying to bring Trump’s chaos and skyrocketing costs to our state. While Stefanik puts Trump first and New York last, Governor Hochul is lowering costs, cutting middle-class taxes, and fighting for the New Yorkers Stefanik abandoned.” The most recent poll released in October by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, found Stefanik leading Hochul by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, and Delgado by six points, 43 percent to 37 percent. The poll surveyed 600 New York City voters and 300 New York State voters, weighted to account for population, from October 22 to October 26, 2025. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. The poll appears to be an anomaly from previous ones that show Hochul with a much greater lead over Stefanik. A Siena College poll of 802 likely voters from September 8 to September 10, 2025, showed Hochul up by 25 points, 52 percent to 27 percent, with 17 percent undecided. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. An internal poll paid for by Stefanik’s leadership fundraising committee conducted by GrayHouse, found Hochul leading Stefanik by five points on an initial ballot, 48 percent to 43 percent, but Stefanik led on an informed ballot 46.4 percent to 45.9 percent. It surveyed 1,2550 New York likely voters from September 20 to September 26, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Polymarket, an online prediction market where users can place "yes" or "no" bets on the likelihood of world events, currently estimates the likelihood of a Democrat winning the state's top office to be 85 percent, with a Republican candidate at 14 percent. It does not specific which candidates, just their party affiliation. Over $16,000 has been bet on the question. What People Are Saying Shawn Donahue, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, previously told Newsweek after the Manhattan Institute poll: “Democrats maintain a very strong enrollment edge in New York, but Trump came considerably closer in 2024 than any Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004. Stefanik would be an interesting candidate in that she would be able to raise a lot of money given her connections to President Trump, but also, this would be likely a negative given that he still did lose New York and polls have showed him underwater.” Steven Ileka, Delgado’s press secretary, previously told Newsweek after the Manhattan Institute poll: “This poll tells a pretty clear story: Voters know and reject Governor Hochul. The Governor has spent millions to end up stuck below 50 percent. Antonio Delgado is focused on bringing people together, building coalitions, and meeting New Yorkers where they are and is already within striking distance, despite the fact that New Yorkers are just coming to get to know him. Voters want new leadership. And Antonio is ready to provide it.” Bernadette Breslin, Stefanik’s campaign spokesperson, said in an October statement: “New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule. Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York.” Governor Kathy Hochul said in a November 7 X post: “Elise Stefanik is running to deliver New York for Donald Trump and raise your costs. Not on my watch. My message to Trump’s “top ally”—bring it on.” What Happens Next The New York governors’ race will take place on November 3, 2026.
