Copyright Newsweek
A pair of new Democratic internal polls point to tight races in two battleground congressional districts currently held by Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Why It Matters Democrats are hoping to retake the majority in the House of Representatives in November 2026. Historically, the party of the president loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped since his return to office in January. But some recent polls suggest that Democrats are in a weaker position than they were at this point in his first term—fueling concerns about whether a strong “blue wave” will strike next year. Two new polls of Arizona’s 6th Congressional District and Wisconsin’s 3rd, however, point to tight races. These are likely to become two of the most competitive battles next year and are among Democrats’ top targets. The polls are conducted by a Democratic-aligned firm, but they underscore the competitive nature of the seats. What To Know Arizona’s 6th District, held by Republican Juan Ciscomani, supported Trump by less than 1 percentage point in November after narrowly backing former President Joe Biden in 2020. Ciscomani has drawn several Democratic challengers, including veteran JoAnna Mendoza. A recent survey from Public Policy Polling, first reported by Politico, asked voters in the district whether they would support Ciscomani or Mendoza. The poll found that 42 percent of respondents said they would support Mendoza, while 41 percent would vote for Ciscomani. It surveyed 581 voters on October 14 and October 15. A separate Public Policy Polling survey asked voters in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District about how they plan to vote next year. The district is currently represented by Republican Derrick Van Orden. It is a bit more conservative, with Trump winning there by about 7 points last year. The poll showed Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke, who ran for the seat last year, leading 44 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent of respondents remaining undecided. The poll surveyed 609 voters in the district on the same days this month. Cooke fared better than former Vice President Kamala Harris in the district last year, losing by less than 3 percentage points, so she is viewed as a top recruit for Democrats, who are hopeful she will be able to flip the seat in a more favorable environment. Generic ballot polling has been a concern for Democrats. While they do hold a modest lead over Republicans in head-to-heads, it is much more narrow than in 2017. On Monday, Democrats led RealClearPolitics’ aggregate by about 1.6 points, compared with their lead of 9.2 points on October 20, 2017. Democrats won the national popular vote by about 8.4 percentage points and a 235-199 House majority in the 2018 midterms. What People Are Saying Mendoza, in a statement: “These numbers reflect and confirm what I hear every day across southern Arizona. Families are ready for leadership that puts people – not DC party leaders – first. I’ve spent my life serving my country and my community, and I’m ready to bring that same commitment to Congress to make life more affordable and ensure every family has a fair shot.” Cooke, in a statement: “Not only is Derrick Van Orden deeply unpopular, but his record in Congress—backing tax cuts for the ultra-rich while asking Wisconsin working families to do more with less—is toxic. My campaign is bringing people together around real solutions that lower costs, improve health care access and put an end to the culture of corruption in Washington." NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella previously told Newsweek: “Democrats can’t hide their far-left lunacy, from their reckless government shutdown to their radical socialist agenda. Voters are sick of paying the price for Democrat chaos, and voters will elect Republicans across the board.” What Happens Next The Cook Political Report classifies both races as toss-ups, meaning they’re set to be among the most contested elections of the midterms.
