College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 9
College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 9
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College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 9

🕒︎ 2025-10-27

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College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 9

There weren't as many surprising results during Week 9 as we've grown accustomed to this season, but some surprising teams continued to make their mark. Georgia Tech remained unbeaten by thumping Syracuse, Vanderbilt beat Missouri to improve to 7-1 for its best start since 1941, Indiana rolled over UCLA to stake its claim as the best team in college football, and Navy won again, moving to 7-0. All four of those teams are in the mix for the College Football Playoff, something few would have foreseen a couple of months ago. As with last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8. From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium. All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13. We're here for all of it. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set. Jump to a section: Playoff picks | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20 Times and networks TBD. Bonagura: No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Oregon Schlabach: No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Georgia Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Georgia Schlabach: No. 11 Vanderbilt at No. 6 Ole Miss Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Ole Miss Schlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Georgia Tech Bonagura: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Miami First-round breakdown Bonagura: At 7-0 (5-0 American Conference), Navy deserves some time in the spotlight, which is why I have the Midshipmen as the No. 12 seed for this week. They have earned it. But the next five games are brutal: at North Texas, at Notre Dame, South Florida, at Memphis, vs. Army. It's one of the most difficult closing slates for any team in college football. There is some margin of error along the way as Tulane (3-0) is the only other unbeaten team in the American and no one else in the conference has more than three league wins. A year after Army flirted with the playoff, Navy is very much in the mix. Schlabach: Finally, there was some order in college football this weekend, as every AP top-10 team that played won, although Alabama, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt had to rally to get it done. I dropped Oregon three spots to No. 9 after its lackluster 21-7 win over struggling Wisconsin at home. The game was played in torrential rain at times, and star quarterback Dante Moore left in the third quarter with a face injury. The Ducks will have to play better when they travel to Iowa on Nov. 8. I dropped Texas Tech and added Vanderbilt as my No. 11 team after the Commodores beat another ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-10 at home. It wasn't pretty, but Diego Pavia and Co. figured out a way to get it done. The Commodores play at Texas on Saturday. Unbeaten Navy replaced South Florida as my fifth conference champion, after the Bulls fell 34-31 at Memphis on Saturday. But as Kyle noted, the Midshipmen are about to hit the meat of their schedule. CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 31 CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama Thursday, Jan. 1 CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama Schlabach: No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 2 Indiana CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) 4 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Quarterfinals breakdown Bonagura: With no major upsets near the top this week, there were no changes here for me. Three Big Ten teams, four SEC teams, plus Georgia Tech in the quarterfinals. Georgia Tech still feels very much like an unknown relative to the others. The Yellow Jackets haven't beaten a ranked team and won't play one (Georgia) for another month before a would-be ACC title game. The unbeaten record matters, but it will be interesting to see how the selection committee slots them when those rankings are released a week from Tuesday. Schlabach: My top five teams remained unchanged, although I seriously considered elevating Indiana to No. 1. The Hoosiers steamrolled UCLA 56-6 at home Saturday, piling up 475 yards of offense and forcing three turnovers. The Bruins had been red hot but couldn't get anything going against IU. Texas A&M was equally impressive in its 49-25 rout of LSU on the road. Tiger Stadium is one of the most difficult road venues in the country, especially at night, but the Aggies didn't have any problems. They outscored the Tigers 35-7 after halftime and won in Baton Rouge for the first time since 1994. There would be two SEC vs. SEC matchups in my quarterfinals, along with one Big Ten vs. Big Ten game. Hopefully, the CFP selection committee would set the seedings to avoid that, but it's going to be difficult to do if there are four or five SEC teams and three from the Big Ten in the field. CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 8 CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State Friday, Jan. 9 CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana Monday, Jan. 19 CFP national championship Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State National championship breakdown Bonagura: Here we are on Oct. 26, and Indiana has a strong case to be the No. 1 team in college football. Just as it looked like UCLA had tapped into something special, the Hoosiers calmly beat the Bruins by 50. These types of projections are always fun to go back and laugh at come playoff time, but two postseason games between Ohio State and Indiana -- Big Ten title game and national championship -- seem more likely every week. Let's also take a minute to acknowledge that it was the correct decision to go away from giving byes to the top four conference champions. It completely threw off the seeding and a natural seeding process for all teams, as is the case now, makes much more sense. Schlabach: I feel good about the Buckeyes and Hoosiers reaching the semifinals with the way they're currently playing. But it's anyone's guess as to who the other two teams might be. Texas A&M has road games left at Missouri and Texas, and the Aggies haven't been in this position in quite some time. Marcel Reed should be a Heisman Trophy candidate and Mike Elko has done a fantastic job bringing some bite to the defense. I went with Georgia as my fourth team, although the Bulldogs would have to get past Alabama to reach the semifinals -- and that has rarely happened lately. The Bulldogs have some obvious shortcomings on defense, but with their offensive line getting healthy, Kirby Smart's team is going to have a chance to outscore its opponents. Gunner Stockton is playing very well, and he has plenty of weapons around him. Complete bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 13 Cricket Celebration Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State LA Bowl SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State Tuesday, Dec. 16 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UConn vs. Toledo Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina Wednesday, Dec. 17 StaffDNA Cure Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Temple Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Marshall 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Marshall vs. Western Michigan Schlabach: Liberty vs. Western Michigan Friday, Dec. 19 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Old Dominion Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: North Texas vs. Florida State Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Wake Forest Monday, Dec. 22 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. San Diego State Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State Tuesday, Dec. 23 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville State Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Baylor Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State Wednesday, Dec. 24 Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: New Mexico vs. California Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Tulane Friday, Dec. 26 GameAbove Sports Bowl Ford Field (Detroit) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio) Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan Rate Bowl Chase Field (Phoenix) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. Northwestern Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Minnesota SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas State vs. Central Michigan Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio) Saturday, Dec. 27 Go Bowling Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane Schlabach: Clemson vs. South Florida Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: SMU vs. Minnesota Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. South Florida Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Virginia vs. Houston Schlabach: Louisville vs. Cincinnati Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., CW Network Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Hawai'i Schlabach: Washington State vs. Fresno State Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 5:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Arizona TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 7:30 p.m. ABC Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. LSU Schlabach: Virginia vs. LSU Kinder's Texas Bowl NRG Stadium (Houston) 9:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma Monday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison Schlabach: Troy vs. UConn Tuesday, Dec. 30 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Texas Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. USC Wednesday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Missouri Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California Friday, Jan. 2 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas State vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Baylor vs. Army AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn Schlabach: TCU vs. UNLV Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pitt vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

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