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November hits and college football flips into two different sports. One is for the playoff committee, the debate shows, the national trophy talk. The other is for us, those still grinding numbers and finding value, watching motivation and catching the teams the market left behind in September. After Week 10, everyone is talking about Heisman and playoff resumes. I'm looking at West Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas State, and yes, even Arkansas and San Jose State. Because this time of year, there is still value to be had in the teams people forgot. Let's take a closer look. West Virginia: Quietly turning a corner The Mountaineers aren't getting much attention and that's exactly why they become interesting. They started slow, the offense sputtered and they couldn't find any rhythm. Suddenly ... there's been movement. 4-5 straight up 4-4-1 ATS Covered in three of the last four games Four straight OVERs West Virginia has gone from sleepwalking early to actually putting driving together, especially in the run game. Diore Hubbard is a real piece, Cam Vaughn has been a consistent target, and Nicco Marchiol looks more confident week-to-week. It's some form of momentum and late-season momentum in a forgotten program is usually not priced correctly. Not betting them blind but just circling them. Teams that figure out who they are in late October tend to cash tickets in November. North Carolina: Don't let Week 1 shape your brain We all still remember that Week 1 disaster. TCU beat them so badly it was like UNC had borrowed money and forgot to pay the Horned Frogs back. It was one of the ugliest season openers I've seen. But that's the problem with September, we remember the shock more than the progression. Since then? Bill Billicheck's squad is 3-5 straight up 5-3 ATS Covered three straight games 1-6-1 to the UNDER The Tar Heels are not "good" but they're no longer a meltdown reel. The defense has settled in and they're ... competitive. UNDERs have crept in because the offense is simplified and the defense isn't hemorrhaging like it did early. After a win over Syracuse, it's safe to say that growth isn't sexy but UNC has indeed gone from awful to functional. In November, functional can cover spreads and stay consistent with game totals. Kansas State: Don't call it a comeback, but ... K-State started like a team trying to learn football from YouTube tutorials. The Wildcats entered the season as Big 12 favorites and 1-3 out of the gate with the only win coming against North Dakota, and it was a narrow win. The panic would have been louder if anyone was paying attention. Fast forward to today, and the situation has changed: 4-5 overall 4-5 ATS Covered three of the last four (and the miss was against one of the best defenses in the country, Texas Tech) Five straight OVERs This offense found a rhythm with Avery Johnson finally finding his footing. The Wildcats are playing fast, confident and the defense isn't stopping much, which is quietly perfect for total bettors. Sometimes stability looks like chaos with points, and that works. Betting value is predictable patterns and K-State games have become predictable in the right ways. Quiet sprinkles: Arkansas and San Jose State Two more teams you may not necessarily want to watch, but might want to track: Arkansas 2-7 straight up 3-6 ATS 7-2 to the OVER, including three straight The Razorbacks are not winning and not covering, but the defense is giving up cardio numbers. Overs might keep printing because they have just enough offense to make you think "yeah that checks out." San Jose State 3-5 straight up 4-4 ATS Covered three of the last five games Five of the last six have gone OVER Same theme: not talented enough to dominate, not incompetent enough to quit. And in late season college football, that's a profitable middle. The betting angle: catching the teams who reinvent themselves These programs aren't going to the playoffs or winning awards but they're improving, stabilizing, covering and hitting totals the market hasn't caught up to yet. And that's where I like to live, in the late-season edges. Sometimes the best bets in November are teams chasing respect, relevance, or just a reason to finish strong. File these away for the weeks to come.
