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Broncos (6-2) at Texans (3-4) When: 11 a.m. Sunday Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas TV/radio: FOX/850 AM, 94.1 FM Broncos-Texans series: There isn’t a long history for this matchup. The Broncos and Texans have played just 10 times, with Denver leading the series 6-4. They have faced off in the Payton Era, though, giving some sense of familiarity. The Texans put away the Broncos 22-17 in December 2023, when former QB Russell Wilson threw three picks and Texans WR1 Nico Collins went off for 191 yards and a score. In the spotlight: Offensive line faces serious challenge vs. Texans’ edge rushers Down in Dove Valley, newly minted Broncos left guard Alex Palczewski’s locker sits directly across from Garett Bolles. And for a 26-year-old who profiles as a tackle and says his last time playing on the left side of the O-line was the “Obama administration,” there may not be a better mentor in the NFL than the 33-year-old Bolles. “It’s just how much of a professional he is — like, he just takes care of himself in all facets, physically, mentally,” Palczewski said of Bolles. “Puts himself in the best positions to succeed.” Bolles has succeeded in one facet better than any other tackle in the NFL this year. He has stared down some edge warriors the past couple of weeks, including the Giants’ Brian Burns and Abdul Carter in Week 7, and not allowed a single pressure since Week 6. On the year, he’s allowed a quarterback pressure on just .09% of his total snaps. That’s best in the league among all tackles with 300-plus snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. “I always knew my better football was always ahead of me,” Bolles told The Post. “The older I get, I just get more comfortable, and more calm, and more composed. And I knew that was going to happen, because that’s just the type of player that I am.” Bolles, the longest-tenured Bronco on this current roster, wants the NFL’s inaugural Protector of the Year award. And he’s been the best protector in the NFL through seven weeks. This weekend’s trip to Houston, though, brings a pass-blocking challenge like few others on the Broncos’ schedule. There aren’t many edge duos in the league that can hold a candle to the Broncos’ speed-rush pairing of Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper. The Texans’ Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, though, are on that level. Third-year rusher Anderson sits at fifth in the NFL in total pressures (36). Ten-year veteran Hunter hasn’t quite been playing at his normal five-time Pro Bowl level, but he still has four sacks through seven games. “They’re extremely fast,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said of Houston’s defense. “And the edges, man, when you look at Danielle Hunter, and — both of these edge players, with wide techniques, are problems.” That speed is the most pressing problem. The 6-foot-5, 300-pound Bolles and right-tackle-mate Mike McGlinchey were both first-round picks due to their athleticism; they now are going head-to-head with the quickest group of pass-rushers in the league. The Texans rank just 21st in the NFL in total pressures (82), but first among all teams in average time to pressure (2.64 seconds). Ultimately, this allows Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke to live in heavy doses of base personnel and four-man rushes without having to blitz much. Teams have attacked Houston quickly: The Texans surrender more yardage per game on throws under 2.5 seconds than over. The Broncos blew the brakes off the Cowboys last week, and got quarterback Bo Nix in rhythm, because of an offensive line that often gave Nix a comical amount of time to throw. They’ll need a continued superhuman effort from Bolles this week, and the line around him, to give Nix time to go through progressions against a stingy Texans secondary. “I say this respectfully, it’s not there’s a multitude of things,” Payton said of his impression of Houston’s defense. “But the things they do, they do exceptionally well.” Who has the edge? When Broncos run: J.K. Dobbins just keeps on chugging. He’s had one bad game out of eight this season, and just posted his single-season high with a 15-carry, 111-yard effort against Dallas. Ideally, the Broncos start to get rookie RJ Harvey more involved after a two-touchdown performance in just seven carries last week. This might be a Dobbins game, though, as the Texans’ run defense has surrendered the lowest yards per game on outside-tackle runs in the NFL. Edge: Even When Broncos pass: Bo Nix got rolling last week, just in time for … one of the best secondaries in the NFL. This group is stingy. Cornerback Jalen Pitre has three interceptions. Second-year safety Calen Bullock has allowed just seven catches on 18 targets in coverage. Even linebacker Henry To’oTo’o has a 63.4 quarterback rating against. The Texans have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. The way to beat Houston is to try and hit the intermediate part of the field, where they’re 25th in average yards per game. Edge: Texans When Texans run: There’s a kinda similar dynamic here in Houston and Denver’s backfields: a go-to-guy with an injury history (Nick Chubb) and a rookie change-of-pace back (Woody Marks). Chubb has had an up-and-down season, though, averaging 4.0 yards a carry. His longest gain of the year is 27 yards. Marks is starting to assert himself, running for 62 yards on just 11 carries in last week’s win over San Francisco. All in all, it’s a decent but not-imposing rushing attack, especially against a Broncos defense that’s surrendering the fifth-lowest average yards per carry in the league. Edge: Broncos When Texans pass: For all the talk about C.J. Stroud’s fall-off since his offensive rookie of the year campaign in 2023, he’s putting up the highest completion percentage (67%) of his career, and he just went 30 of 38 for 316 yards against the 49ers. The Texans’ issue is a lack of explosiveness, and Stroud has been iffy in the intermediate part of the field. Nico Collins’ health is the key here, as he’s been in concussion protocol and will likely match up with Denver’s Riley Moss with Pat Surtain II hurt. Edge: Even Special teams: Texans rookie Jaylin Noel brings juice in the return game, with similar average yards-per-punt and yards-per-kick returns to the Broncos’ All-Pro Marvin Mims Jr. Broncos punter Jeremy Crawshaw far outranks the Texans’ Tommy Townsend in average punts downed inside the 20-yard-line, though. Denver also has a special-teams ace in safety Devon Key, who is second in the league in special-teams tackles, according to TeamRankings.com. Edge: Broncos Coaching: The Texans have built one of the NFL’s stingiest units under defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans and coordinator Matt Burke. Their offense, though, has consistently underperformed in a 3-4 start. Broncos head coach Sean Payton just authored his best end-to-end play-calling performance of the year, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph showed he could survive without Surtain against one of the NFL’s best offenses in Dallas last week. Slight edge: Broncos Tale of the tape Broncos Texans Total offense 356.9 (9th) 328.7 (17th) Rush offense 137.8 (T-3rd) 113.4 (17th) Pass offense 219.1 (14th) 215.3 (16th) Points per game 25.9 (10th) 21.9 (T-19th) Total defense 281.4 (5th) 266.9 (1st) Run defense 95.1 (10th) 88.4 (5th) Pass defense 186.3 (7th) 178.4 (4th) Points allowed 18.9 (5th) 14.7 (1st) By the numbers 20.2%: Texans OLB Will Anderson Jr.’s pressure rate, second in the NFL to the Broncos’ Nik Bonitto among players with 25-plus pressures. 22.2%: C.J. Stroud’s completion percentage on intermediate or deep throws down the right side of the field, according to PFF. 1: Rushing touchdowns the Texans have in the red zone this year, through seven games. 68%: Houston’s run-block win rate, as measured by ESPN — last in the NFL. 139.4: Bo Nix’s QB rating against the blitz in his last two games. 286: Dobbins’ rushing yards when facing a light box (seven or fewer defenders), fourth in the NFL. X-factors Broncos: S Talanoa Hufanga. Broncos cornerback Riley Moss told The Post that Denver played more two-high safety looks in Pat Surtain II’s second-half absence, and coordinator Vance Joseph will likely rely heavily upon Hufanga and safety partner Brandon Jones to give some help to whoever starts on Nico Collins (could be Moss, could be Kris Abrams-Draine). This week is a good test of Hufanga’s evolution in coverage. Texans: WR Jaylin Noel. The rookie might be establishing himself as Houston’s No. 2 WR after racking up a combined nine catches for 140 yards the past couple of weeks. The Texans need another wideout to step up against a Broncos defense that’ll likely scheme heavily against Collins in Surtain’s absence. Post predictions Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 16, Texans 13 One team in Texas has the best offense in football and the worst defense. The Broncos put 44 points on that team last week. The other team in Texas has perhaps the best defense in the NFL, but hasn’t been able to protect its quarterback. That’s this weekend’s Broncos opponent, Houston. Denver coach Sean Payton likes to say that sometimes games go the way you expect, and occasionally they don’t. A high-scoring affair here, though, would be a surprise. Both defenses are nasty. The pass-rushes are fierce. The secondaries are stout — although Denver will be without Pat Surtain II. Still, a slugfest is on tap. The Broncos have proven they can win ’em. Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 17, Texans 14 Last week was the shootout. This week is the brawl. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper vs. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Who can terrorize the opposing quarterback more? What secondary can take away the skies better? This shapes up as a defensive battle through and through, even after Bo Nix and company got rolling last week. The Broncos just have better personnel to win that type of ballgame, with Nix’s demonstrated clutch gene and Dobbins rolling as the best running back on either roster. Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 19, Texans 16 The Broncos should lose this game without Pat Surtain II. But Denver’s front will feast on the Texans’ offensive line. Pressure remains the best way to protect cornerbacks. The key is for Sean Payton not to get cute. Keep it simple. Establish the run. Protect the ball. Gash with play-action and rollouts, and let a strip sack of C.J. Stroud set up a winning field goal from reigning AFC Special Teams Player of the Month Wil Lutz. Sean Keeler, columnist: Texans 24, Broncos 23 Houston’s tied with New England for the highest ratio of TDs allowed to opponents in its own red zone (70.59). The real trick? Getting there. And getting to C.J. Stroud. Vance Joseph threw all kinds of off-speed looks at Dak Prescott. Is there enough spin on the curve to mess with Stroud, who shredded the 49ers’ blitz last week? Houston is 3-10 in the C.J. era when its QB1 is sacked four or more times. The Texans are 6-13 when he’s been sacked three times or more — and 8-1 when it’s one sack or fewer.
