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The Big 12 has been the most unpredictable conference in college football over the past several years, and the title race is once again up in the air. Prohibitive favorite Texas Tech lost a stunner against Arizona State, opening the door for several others. Heading into the month of November last year, there were nine Big 12 teams technically alive for the Big 12 title because of tiebreakers. Four teams tied for first place at the end of the year, with Arizona State beating out Iowa State for a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff appearance. It's worth noting the conference has produced a brand-new participant in the Big 12 Championship Game in seven of the last eight years. Four of the five teams with one or fewer losses in conference play would be first-time participants. The Big 12 chaos wheel keeps turning. Here's how we handicap every school in the Big 12 title race, from top contenders to bottom of the barrel. CBS Sports 136: Texas A&M, Alabama rise into top five amid shakeup in college football rankings Chip Patterson The top contenders Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1): Despite looking mortal in a loss to Arizona State last week, Texas Tech remains the team to beat in the Big 12. The defensive line has exceeded all expectations as linebackers David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez both earned Midseason All-America honors. With quarterback Behren Morton healthy, this is still the best team in the Big 12, but he needs to get healthy. BYU (7-0, 4-0): The Cougars have played one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12, but a win over Utah last weekend vaulted them into the top group. There's a marquee matchup with Texas Tech on Nov. 8 and road trips to Iowa State and Cincinnati, but even 1-2 in those games should be enough to reach Arlington. Arizona State (5-2, 3-1): The Sun Devils' 2025 season is eerily similar to their 2024 campaign, down to losing big without quarterback Sam Leavitt in the lineup. However, Leavitt's 319-yard return against Texas Tech helps push them back towards the contender pile with only one loss. The schedule is tricky from here on out, but not impossible, and the tiebreaker against Texas Tech is huge. While Texas Tech remains the prohibitive betting favorite on FanDuel, the Sun Devils now have the second-best odds to win the Big 12. Just need one break Cincinnati (6-1, 4-0): The Bearcats have been the surprise team of the Big 12 season, and perhaps belong in the top group. Cincinnati was a near-comeback against Nebraska away from an undefeated start. The trenches have been the star of the show, led by All-American Dontay Corleone and FCS transfer Joe Cotton. Games against Baylor and Utah in the next two weeks can cement their contender status. Utah (5-2, 2-2): The Utes are a high quality team, perhaps third-best in the Big 12. The problem? The Utes have tiebreaking losses to both Texas Tech and BYU through the first seven games, along with a matchup remaining against No. 21 Cincinnati. Tiebreaker math just isn't on their side. Houston (6-1, 3-1): Willie Fritz wins everywhere he goes, but he has outdone himself with this instant rebuild at Houston. The Cougars have already clinched their first bowl trip since joining the Big 12, and have plenty of potential wins left on the schedule. That said, Houston has been a little streaky offensively, but there's another level there. Iowa State (5-2, 2-2): After a fantastic start, the Cyclones lost head-scratching road games against Cincinnati and Colorado in recent weeks. Now, they play No. 11 BYU, No. 24 Arizona State and on the road against TCU in the next three games. It's a frustrating way to whiff on what could have been a historic season. Outside looking in TCU (5-2, 2-2): The Horned Frogs' inconsistency has reared its head over the past few weeks, including a 13-point loss to Kansas State on the road. The schedule ahead has many pitfalls, including at No. 11 BYU, Iowa State and No. 21 Cincinnati. The Frogs likely still control their own destiny, but it's a rough road. Baylor (4-3, 2-2): Baylor has underwhelmed after lofty expectations to start the year, and needed strokes of luck just to outlast SMU and Kansas State. A struggling defensive line has led to them ranking amongst the worst defensive units in college football, but a stacked offense at least gives them a chance every week. Kansas State (3-4, 2-2): Beating UCF served as a get-right game, and the Wildcats have turned things on over the last three games. But the early season woes are still dragging Kansas State down, and a blocked 57-yard field goal against Baylor prevents them from having a realistic path to contention. Kansas (4-3, 2-2): Quarterback Jalon Daniels has been everything that was promised, but the defense has cost the Jayhawks games. There are plenty of 50-50 games ahead, but none are more important than the Sunflower Showdown against Kansas State this week. Working through things Arizona (4-3, 1-3): Outside of a game against Oklahoma State, the Wildcats have played a brutal Big 12 schedule. Even still, they beat Kansas State in nonconference and played BYU and Houston to within six points. The Wildcats are a much more competent football team in 2025 under Brent Brennan, and the resurgence of Noah Fifita has been a welcome change. Colorado (3-4, 1-3): The Buffaloes have been inconsistent, but the team has been well coached and given themselves a chance in every game. Colorado shocked Iowa State and took BYU to the wire. The schedule is brutal, but a bowl game could be in sight. UCF (4-3, 1-3): The Knights have shown some promising signs under first-year coach Scott Frost. The headliner was a 45-13 decimation of lowly West Virginia, but close games against Cincinnati and Kansas show that the program has clearly taken a step. Assuming a win against Oklahoma State, they just need to pull an upset against Baylor or Houston to return to the postseason. Battle for last West Virginia (2-5, 0-4): Rich Rodriguez got his revenge against Pittsburgh in Week 3, and the wheels have fully flown off since. The Mountaineers have been outscored by 111 points in four Big 12 games, including a 45-13 loss to UCF last week. If the Mountaineers finish winless, it will be the first such conference campaign for WVU since 1960.
