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Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter, which you can start receiving in your inbox by subscribing here. Right now, here's what your free subscription entails: Weekly look at college basketball (every Monday evening) Weekly look at the NBA (every Tuesday evening) College football weekend preview (every Thursday evening) NFL weekend preview (every Friday morning) College Football ATS picks (every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET) NFL ATS picks (every Sunday morning at 10 a.m. ET) This morning's edition is available below, to subscribers only. College football winners have been hard to come by lately, to say the least, but I feel good about each of the picks below. 🤞for things to go our way today and get us back on the right track. Today's would-be headliners, Penn State vs. Indiana and LSU vs. Alabama, are not quite the top-10 showdowns they were expected to be, but we still have a strong slate, starting with a top-10 battle between No. 7 BYU and No. 8 Texas Tech at noon (all times Eastern). At 3:30 p.m., No. 3 Texas A&M visits No. 22 Missouri in a huge SEC matchup and No. 9 Oregon takes on No. 20 Iowa. Now, without further ado, your Week 11 CFB picks against the spread … No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (-11.5) Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET (ABC) The fact that undefeated BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) is catching 11.5 points tells us this will not be the evenly matched matchup we should typically expect between top-10 teams. In fact, oddsmakers and bettors are showing Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) so much respect that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Raiders roll. But 11.5 points is too big a spread for me to lay the points here. What I do feel confident in is another excellent showing by Texas Tech's loaded defense. Led by star pass rusher David Bailey, the Red Raiders boast one of the best defensive lines in the nation, and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is a likely All-American. Texas Tech is allowing just 13.2 points per game, and just two of its first nine opponents this year have cracked 20 points. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the nation, but he faces a brutal challenge today. It's not hard to envision the Red Raiders forcing him into a few bad decisions in the most difficult test of his young career. There's reason to second-guess Texas Tech on the spread, but there's a lot to like about the favorites holding BYU under its team total. Pick: BYU Team Total Under 19.5 (best odds: -105 at DraftKings) No. 5 Georgia (-9.5) at Mississippi State Kickoff: 12 p.m. (ESPN) Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) keeps finding ways to finish games in the fourth quarter, but the Dawgs have been far from dominant, especially in SEC play. This afternoon, Kirby Smart's team -- which is coming off a 24-20 win over archrival Florida in yet another impressive comeback -- visits a tough Mississippi State squad that has been strong at home all year. MSU (5-4, 1-4 SEC) took down Arizona State in Starkville in September, and it also took Tennessee and Texas to overtime at home. The question today is probably whether to take head coach Jeff Lebby's team to cover the first-half spread (+4.5) or to cover +9.5 for the game. Given that Georgia has had the lead at halftime just once in six SEC games, the safe answer is probably to just take Mississippi State First Half +4.5. But is it just me, or are the underdogs also tempting on the first-half moneyline at +220 over at FanDuel?? As for how these teams match up, Mississippi State has consistently been able to move the ball this year and put up points, but its defense has struggled against the best offenses it has faced. Georgia has been good, but not great, on both sides of the ball, with ESPN's SP+ ranking both the UGA offense and its defense at No. 17 nationally. It's hard to predict what will happen down the stretch in this one, but I feel good about Mississippi State starting strong, if nothing else, against a Georgia team that has trailed at halftime in four of its first six SEC games. One other nugget to support taking the home team on the first-half spread here: even in MSU's most lopsided loss of the year, a 31-9 loss at Texas A&M on October 4, the Bulldogs trailed just 7-3 at the break. Pick: Mississippi State First Half +4.5 (best odds: -110 at FanDuel) Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (-27.5) Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) This is a much bigger number than I typically trust a favorite to cover. But it's worth noting that last year, a Navy team that finished 10-3 lost at home to the Fighting Irish by 37 points as 14.5-point underdogs. ND (6-2) is one of the few teams strong enough up front and familiar enough with Navy's unique offense to keep it in check. QB Blake Horvath and Co. typically lose big when they have to play from behind and rely on his arm. Last week, Navy (7-1, 5-1 American) lost 31-17 to North Texas. And last year, two of this team's three losses came by at least 35 points. This year's Irish might not be quite as stout defensively as last year's squad, but this is one of the best offensive teams in the country. Notre Dame has already beaten three teams (Purdue, Arkansas and NC State) by at least 26 points. Against a Navy D that has given up 30-plus points in four straight weeks, I expect Notre Dame to put 40 or 50 points on the scoreboard while limiting a Navy offense that it A) knows well and B) held to just 3 points in 2023 and 17 points in 2024. The other reason I'm comfortable holding my breath and laying the points is the fact that Notre Dame needs to run up the score to maximize its College Football Playoff chances. At this point in the year, don't expect any teams in the CFP mix to hit the brakes before the final whistle. Pick: Notre Dame -27.5 (best odds: -110 at FanDuel) Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
