Copyright Newsweek
Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City mayoral race could be good news for Vice President JD Vance’s chances in the 2028 presidential race, political analysts have told Newsweek. Why It Matters Mamdani, a Democrat, defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa in New York City’s mayoral race Tuesday night. He will now lead the nation’s largest city and is faced with tackling issues including affordability and public safety. His victory also has national implications. Republicans have already sought to tie other Democrats to Mamdani, who identifies as a Democratic socialist and has drawn bipartisan scrutiny over his stance on Israel. Republicans are hopeful that having a socialist in such a high-profile position could weigh down Democrats in key races both in the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential elections. What To Know Mamdani was on track to defeat Cuomo with just over 50 percent of the vote as of Wednesday morning, The Associated Press reported. He has earned support from other progressive politicians, including independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. But many Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, declined to get behind his candidacy. Other Democrats on the ballot Tuesday—such as Representative Mikie Sherrill and former Representative Abigail Spanberger, who ran in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, respectively—largely steered clear or distanced themselves from Mamdani despite GOP attacks. Spanberger told CNN that she doesn’t believe Mamdani’s style of socialism is on the rise. “When you have a party that makes promise after promise, and then say, ‘Oh, we passed it in the House, it’s not our fault’—vulnerable people believed you. Maybe he is going to get Albany onboard with totally refinancing public transportation. But there’s a lot of people who believe him,” she said. Sherrill and Spanberger comfortably won their own elections, despite Republicans' focus on Mamdani over recent weeks. Spanberger was on track for a 15-point win with 97 percent of the vote counted, while Sherrill was heading toward a 13-point win with 95 percent of the vote counted as of Wednesday morning, the AP reported. Comedian Bill Maher raised concerns about Mamdani’s impact on future elections during an episode of his Club Random podcast from July. He warned that Mamdani could be a “walking commercial” for Republicans and could boost Vance’s chances of winning the 2028 election. The vice president is viewed as a front-runner for Republicans if he chooses to run for the White House in the next presidential election. “He definitely has the power and influence to elect JD Vance, or whoever is the Republican candidate next time,” Maher said. Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told Newsweek that Republicans will “definitely try” to turn Mamdani into the next “Nancy Pelosi cudgel” against Democrats. “The question becomes how effective can the GOP be at the right messaging, and if enough voters who matter know who Mamdani is and the threat his ideology poses. That combination is imperative for it to be an effective attack,” he said. He said the “larger potential impact” is about whether his victory will increase the number of progressive and socialist candidates in primaries, as those candidates typically perform poorer than moderates. Voters will pay attention to Mamdani if “he actually implements these socialist ideas and destroys America's greatest metropolis,” Buchanan said. “Mamdani's win could increase the odds of having more extreme Democratic nominees,” he said. Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at Columbia University, said Republicans will continue to use Mamdani’s victory to “demonize all Democrats.” But it is yet to be seen whether that has any real effect, he said. “It may not have much effect in harming the Democrats since this is part of the Republicans' ongoing attacks on the Democrats, and it is well known how New York City politics is different, with many Democrats further to the left,” he said. The results of the New Jersey and Virginia elections, where Democrats ran as more moderates, are “better harbingers of what may come in the midterm elections,” he said. GOP strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek Mamdani’s victory “will be the gift that keeps on giving unless he significantly moderates once he wins on November 4.” “Donald Trump has already bashed the candidate and once Mamdani is elected and begins to implement his extreme left program, it will be interesting to see how other Democrats embrace him,” he said. Many Democrats tolerated Mamdani in 2025, but he could become a “big distraction” as they try to focus on Trump ahead of the midterms, Klink said. The 2028 election is “too far away” to know any measurable impact, but his ability to “distract” Democrats in the midterms is real, he said. Democrats, however, have downplayed the impact Mamdani would have. “There are literally hundreds and hundreds of mayors of major cities. I know we got a big ego in New York, but the Democratic Party, I think has a lot to learn,” said Senator Cory Booker, a New Jersey Democrat, on WNYW. Senator Sanders told CBS News that a Mamdani victory would send the message that “you can stand up to the oligarchs” and that people can “start electing members of Congress, and mayors and governors who stand with the working class.” What People Are Saying GOP strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek: “As the chief executive of America’s largest city—one that’s known worldwide—Mamdani has too big of a podium to be ignored. Other Democrat mayors will look to Mamdani. Policy expert will gauge whether his socialist policies are moving the needle in New York City or if his campaign promises were just rhetoric. "Every policy will be scrutinized. Every milestone will be evaluated. Critics will dig to find dirt or unflattering data on Mamdani the person and his policies. In short, there’s no way that the rest of America will ignore New York City.” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kristen Cianci wrote in a statement last month: “Zohran Mamdani is the Democrats’ new leader and the reason socialists are set to be Democrats’ nominees in battleground races. Republicans will ensure the Mamdani effect is a kiss of death for Democrats in House and Senate races.” What Happens Next How Mamdani shapes the outcome of future elections remains to be seen.
