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Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping entire industries, but few investors realize the scale of energy required to power this transformation. The Data Center Solutions Market is projected to explode from $448.95 billion in 2025 to $1,105.28 billion by 2030, a staggering compound annual growth rate of 19.7%. This surge is driven by the need for facilities capable of handling AI workloads, including training and inference for deep learning models. Yet this rapid expansion comes with a cost. U.S. electric grids are now under pressure from energy-hungry data centers. Policymakers are even considering emergency measures to bump these facilities off grids during power shortages. While tech giants dominate headlines, a lesser-known natural gas producer stands to gain as much, if not more, from this structural shift. Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) has quietly scaled its natural gas production. The company has also returned $585 million to shareholders in just the first half of 2025. If you're searching for a backdoor play on the AI-driven energy demand, could this overlooked energy stock be your best bet for 2026? Let's dive into EXE. EXE’s Numbers That Matter Powering U.S. data centers across core shale basins, Oklahoma-based Expand Energy produces and markets natural gas, oil, and NGLs at scale. The dividend framework is straightforward. It offers a forward annual dividend of $2.30 for a 2.20% yield, and the most recent dividend of $1.465 was paid on Aug. 14. EXE stock’s current price stands at $101.09, and year-to-date (YTD) performance shows a 1.94% gain and 52-week performance of 19.02%. The company sits at roughly $24.71 billion in equity value and $29.997 billion in enterprise value, trading at 27.27x P/E ttm versus the sector’s 12.43x and 18.89x forward P/E versus the sector’s 12.98x, reflecting a premium for growth, scale, and cash conversion relative to peers. Expand Energy’s latest reported quarter, released on July 29, is a useful lens on that setup. This showed net cash provided by operating activities of $1,322 million, underscoring the cash-generative nature of the portfolio at current strip pricing. It detailed net income of $968 million, or $4.02 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $265 million, or $1.10 per share, clarifying underlying profitability after non-cash and timing items. This highlighted adjusted EBITDAX of $1,176 million, which frames operating strength before interest, taxes, DD&A, and exploration costs. It emphasized the highest average drilled footage per day across all three business units, signaling execution gains in cycle times and well productivity. That pointed to roughly $425 million of incremental 2025 free cash flow versus prior plans, primarily from improved performance, creating more room for capital returns and deleveraging. EXE increased the 2025 net debt paydown to $1 billion, reinforcing balance sheet improvement through cash generation rather than asset sales. Expand Energy returned $585 million to shareholders in the first half of 2025 via the base dividend, a variable dividend, and share repurchases, which demonstrates a commitment to distributing surplus cash while funding growth. This supports the thesis that a natural gas supplier with scale, efficiency, and disciplined capital allocation can be a direct beneficiary of AI’s rising power demand and investor appetite for cash-backed growth. EXE’s Operational Strength and Financial Flexibility Expand Energy ran an average of 11 rigs through the second quarter, drilling 49 wells and bringing 59 online, with resulting net production touching about 7.2 Billion Cubic Feet Equivalent (Bcfe) per day. This output, 92% natural gas, aligns closely with the growing footprint of AI-driven data demand in the U.S. Expand Energy’s strategy keeps it squarely in the conversation when analysts look for suppliers with scale, reliability, and output that matches the surge in electricity consumption from next-generation technology. On Sept. 30, the company finalized a $3.5 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase Bank (JPM) acting as administrative agent. The agreement provides Expand Energy significant financial flexibility for the years ahead. There’s an option to expand the facility by another $1 billion, bringing total borrowing capacity to $4.5 billion. The facility matures five years from the effective date, meaning Expand Energy locks in a window of low-cost liquidity while executing medium-term growth and capital return plans. This facility is structured so the company can access funding for working capital, ongoing drilling, and infrastructure upgrades. The covenants require prudent debt management, a debt-to-capitalization ratio not to exceed 65%, and the freedom to prepay and re-borrow without penalty except for standard breakage fees. Analysts See Explosive EPS Trajectory Estimates for Expand Energy’s next earnings release, scheduled for Oct. 28, show that analysts expect $0.91 in Q3, $1.67 for Q4, $5.53 for full-year 2025, and $9.01 for full-year 2026. These figures mark dramatic improvements compared to prior-year results of $0.16, $0.55, $1.41, and $5.53, respectively. The forecasted pace of growth comes in at 468.75% for Q3, 203.64% for Q4, 292.20% for FY 2025, and 62.93% for FY 2026, highlighting what could be a period of accelerated profitability for EXE. This acceleration mirrors forecasted operational efficiency and higher demand linked to AI data center expansion in the United States, a theme central to EXE’s growth thesis. Those rising estimates sit alongside a leaner capital plan and bigger synergy capture, which strengthens the forward narrative. The company reduced full-year 2025 drilling and completion capex guidance by about $100 million to drive approximately $2.9 billion in total capital expenditures, preserving free cash flow without undercutting growth. Analyst sentiment couldn’t be more bullish. The 28 surveyed give EXE stock a consensus "Strong Buy" rating, with an average price target of $130.85. This implies a calculated upside of about 29% from the current price. Conclusion So, is this the best way to play AI in 2026? For investors who want real cash flow behind the theme, Expand Energy looks like a clear yes. With accelerating earnings forecasts, disciplined capex, and firm analyst conviction, the setup skews positive into the next print. Shares will most likely grind higher toward the low- to mid-$120s over six to 12 months, with pullbacks getting bought on strong fundamentals.
