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Sadly, Democrats may not be able to catch up to Republicans in terms of gerrymandering, even though the party is rightly trying to. Many blue states have redistricting commissions and also courts and legal precedents that discourage drawing maps that strongly favor one party. Those are good policies in a world of normal politics. I supported them when they were adopted. But right now, those of us who encouraged Democrats to adopt more pro-democracy reforms look dumb and naïve. The Republicans have been pursuing one-party domination of America for decades, giving them an advantage over Democrats, who have been trying to foster a true democracy of two or more parties. How important this gerrymandering will end up being is hard to predict. Trump and congressional Republicans may be so unpopular next year that no amount of rejiggering seats will save them. And while both parties are pretty good at drawing districts in their favor, it’s possible they will draw a few that they still lose. But most voters these days back the same party in every election, so I tend to think these district lines will be super-important. And Democrats winning the House next year is critical, because their odds in the Senate are much longer. Even if Democrats don’t end up successfully creating many more seats for themselves in Virginia, Maryland, or other states, the boldness we are seeing in Virginia right now still matters. It’s the latest indication, along with the California gerrymandering and the government shutdown, that the Democratic Party leadership finally really appreciates the perilous moment we are in, with a Republican Party trying to lock itself into power forever and turn America into a competitive autocracy.
