Kyle Schwarber said the Phillies have a dream. What if I told you that the team Schwarber grew up rooting for could help make that dream come true? The Reds already let Schwarber catch a first pitch from his dad. Now they could help him win a World Series. But Tuesday wasn’t a good start.
We’ll have you covered here every morning during Red October, even if it stretches into November. Let’s see if the Phils can make their dream a reality.
Also in this edition:
— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)
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Making a ‘dream’ a reality
The only thing better this week than one Reds win would be two Reds wins. After Tuesday, the Phillies will gladly take one.
Maybe I’m overstating this, but I believe the Phillies will win the World Series if the Reds win a game against the Dodgers. If not, my confidence takes a hit.
Here’s why:
A Reds win on Wednesday night will push the Reds and Dodgers to a Game 3 where the Dodgers will have to pitch Shohei Ohtani instead of saving him for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday. If Ohtani faces the Reds, the Dodgers will have to use a fourth starter against the Phillies. Imagine Game 1 in The Jungle with either Tyler Glasnow or Emmet Sheehan vs. Cristopher Sánchez. The Phillies take Game 1, are suddenly in the driver’s seat against a team that looked like a juggernaut on Tuesday night, and the path to Broad Street becomes a bit clearer.
If the Dodgers finish off the Reds on Wednesday, then the Dodgers can fill all five games of the NLDS with Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitching on regular rest thanks to an unnecessary off day between Games 1 and 2.
The Dodgers could align their rotation vs. the Phillies like this if they sweep the Reds:
Game 1 on Saturday: Ohtani
Game 2 on Monday: Snell
Game 3 on Wednesday: Yamamoto
Game 4 on Thursday: Ohtani
Game 5 on Saturday: Snell
The Phillies would have to win three times in five games against Ohtani, Snell, and Yamamoto to advance to the NLCS. Their chances increase drastically if they had to win twice in four games against those arms. So that’s why a Game 1 win against a lesser pitcher could sway the series; the winner of which I believe will win the pennant.
Ohtani didn’t allow a hit vs. the Phillies in five innings on Sept. 16, Snell struck out 12 Phillies in seven scoreless innings the next night, and Yamamoto had a 1.53 ERA in his final seven regular-season starts. Facing those three is always going to be hard but perhaps the mountain becomes a bit easier to climb if you can take the series lead before they’re on the mound.
The Reds are no pushover but they’re also not the Dodgers. Or even the Diamondbacks from 2023. They won nine of their final 16 games, making the playoffs largely because the Mets tapped out by losing 14 of their final 21. Hunter Greene is an ace and Chase Burns could be electric out of the bullpen, but the rotation seems winded after Brady Singer had to pitch Game 162 and a groin injury moved Nick Lodolo to a relief role. For the Phillies, one Reds win would make the Dodgers a little less scary. Two wins, would be a dream.
Coverage cleanup
⚡️Mr. Red October: Bryce Harper has been stellar on the postseason stage in his career. There’s only one thing missing.
⚾️ What kind of reward is this? Dodgers-Phillies would be epic, but David Murphy argues that the rules would also make it maddeningly absurd.
😌 Rest is good: Some might argue that a bye throws off a team’s rhythm after playing almost everyday since March. But the Phillies welcome the break.
💣 Schwarbombs away: Schwarber came up short of breaking Ryan Howard’s Phillies record, but still turned in a memorable year of power. We tracked each home run.
Numbers game
The Phillies saw fastballs this season for just 52.3% of their pitches, which was the lowest rate in the majors. Why didn’t teams throw them fastballs? The Phillies crushed ‘em as they hit .278 (second best in majors) and slugged .463 (fifth best) against heaters.
So what could that mean against the Reds or Dodgers? The Reds threw fastballs this season near the league average while the Dodgers had the fifth-lowest rate (52.2%) in baseball. That number even decreased in September when the Dodgers had a healthy staff.
If it’s the Dodgers, expect the Phillies to deal with plenty of breaking pitches as just one team — Miami — threw breaking pitches at a higher rate in September than the Dodgers. Teams slugged a major league low .240 last month vs. the Dodgers’ breaking stuff. How the Phillies handle it could decide the series.
I’m still thinking about
Harrison Bader’s game-tying homer in August in the eighth inning at Citi Field. The Phillies lost the game a few minutes later so the swing became an afterthought. But it made me believe that Bader — a savvy trade deadline acquisition — is a prime candidate to deliver in a big spot this month. Bader was excellent since the trade deadline as he matched his always elite glove with a .305 average and .824 OPS in 50 games. It was easy to see how he injected the Phillies with needed energy and came up in big spots. His OPS, according to Baseball Reference, jumped to .917 in 27 plate appearances that were considered “high leverage.” One of his two high-leverage homers was that swing against the Mets. If the Phils win that night, it’s one of the top moments of the season. It’s instead forgotten. I think he’ll have his moment in October.
Watching for next
The ballpark on Wednesday will be a scene.
You know you’re from Philly when you’re still holding a grudge about a tweet from 12 months ago by someone you’ve never met:
As of Tuesday afternoon, the Phillies sold 29,500 tickets for Wednesday’s intra-squad scrimmage at Citizens Bank Park. Limited tickets remain and you can expect them to be sold. That’s TWENTY-NINE THOUSAND AND FIVE HUNDRED fans coming to the ballpark to see the Phillies practice. The Phillies will draw more fans to see the Phillies vs. the Phillies than four playoff teams — Cleveland, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Detroit — averaged at home this season. Yes, Philadelphia is still a fervent sports town.