After months of calculations, bold predictions, and unforgettable nights of basketball, the WNBA Final Four is finally set. The 2025 season was expected to be about superstar dominance, but injuries, shocks, and sheer fight told a different story. Now just four teams remain, each chasing the same championship dream. The stage is ruthless, every play magnified under the spotlight. The dream, not (Atlanta), is within reach, but only those who refuse to break will survive. So how do they rank?
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The Minnesota Lynx enter the semifinals with unfinished business. Last year’s finals heartbreak still haunts, but they’re determined to rewrite the ending. Waiting for them are the Phoenix Mercury, who stumbled late in the regular season with three straight losses, but are peaking at the right moment, stunning the defending champion New York Liberty in three games.
On the other side, A’ja Wilson leads the Las Vegas Aces with championship focus, but Seattle’s game 2 win and narrow miss in game 3 is keeping them in check. And then there’s Indiana. The Fever, counted out by nearly everyone, refuses to stop believing, turning doubt into their greatest weapon.
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With the Field of 8 now trimmed to the final four, it’s time to break down each team and rate their chances as we head into the final few weeks of what’s been an action-packed WNBA season.
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1. Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx are the only team in the semifinals to reach this stage without playing a Game 3. It is a testament to their dominance this season. They finished the regular season with a league-best 34-10 record, leading in both offensive and defensive ratings. But even they had a few question marks heading into the WNBA playoffs, especially after late-season losses to the Fever and Aces. But those clearly seem to have been answered.
Strengths :
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Scoring: The Lynx led the league with 86.1 points per game, just ahead of Indiana’s 84.9 and Las Vegas’s 83.6
Elite perimeter efficiency: They also led the league in three-point accuracy, knocking down 37.8% of their attempts from beyond the arc
Transition dominance: Even though the Lynx play at the slowest pace among the semifinalists, they make it count. They lead all four teams in points off turnovers, averaging 17.2 per game, and top the list in fast-break points with 12.6.
Threats:
Absence of DiJonai Carrington: Against the Valkyries, who attempted a league-high 29.9 three-pointers per game during the regular season, the Lynx ended up giving up ten made threes in Game 2, barely scraping by with a one-point win. That could be a red flag against a team like the Mercury, who connect on 34.0% from deep—better than the Valkyries. Missing a key perimeter defender like DiJonai Carrington, whose injury status is still uncertain, could make containing Phoenix from long range even tougher.
2. Las Vegas Aces
he 2025 season was anything but a typical Becky Hammon masterpiece. By midseason, the Las Vegas Aces looked broken, sitting at 14-14 after 28 games and reeling from a humiliating 53-point defeat to the Minnesota Lynx, the worst loss in franchise history.
It wasn’t just another bad night; it shook the Aces’ confidence to the core and sent shockwaves across the league. Something had to change. That’s when A’ja Wilson stepped forward, her voice cutting through the silence, and laid it out straight for her team:
“….if you weren’t embarrassed from yesterday, then don’t come into this gym. You’re not needed or wanted here. We need the mindset to shift because that was embarrassing.”
A’ja Wilson and Co. then finished the season red hot, storming into the WNBA playoffs on a 16-game winning streak. Their turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable, and at the heart of it all? A’ja Wilson. She is leading their charge, averaging a league-high 23.4 points, 2.3 blocks per game, and dominating the leaderboards in 20 and 30-point double-doubles.
Strengths:
Perimeter efficiency: The Aces are one of the best spacing teams in the league, and with that comes plenty of looks from deep. They put up 25.9 threes per game, second-most among the semifinalists, while knocking them down at a 35.1% rate. But come WNBA playoff time, they’ve taken it up a notch, becoming the most efficient three-point shooting team in the semifinals.
Familiarity: The Aces know all about these moments. Over the last five years, they’ve made three Finals and two semifinals, winning it all twice. No other team left in the playoffs can match that kind of big-stage experience. The Lynx may be one of the league’s most decorated franchises, but this current group hasn’t lifted the trophy yet—and that’s where the Aces’ edge really shows.
Threats:
Prone to Turnovers: The Aces cough up the ball 13 times a game, giving up 13.9 points off those mistakes, the most among the semifinal teams. They also allow 9.9 fast-break points per game, second only to the Mercury among the final four.
Points in paint: Even though A’ja Wilson leads the league with 12.1 points in the paint, the Aces as a team manage only 31.9 paint points per game. Add to that just 8.1 offensive rebounds, the lowest among the semifinalists, and it’s clear the paint remains their weakest area.
3. Phoenix Mercury
It was chaos in Phoenix this offseason. The Mercury lost 10 players, including legends like Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, with only one starter returning. On paper, it looked like a rebuilding year. But coach Nate Tibbetts and the front office had other plans.
Mercury put together a brand-new core led by the triple-double queen Alyssa Thomas, with Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper forming the rest of a powerful trio.
The Phoenix Mercury hadn’t seen a 25-win season in 11 years, a 20-win season in 7, a top-4 finish in 10, or a WNBA playoff series win in 4
This year, they finally checked every box, powered by their newly built roster. Even in Round 1, few believed they stood a chance against the defending champs. But after taking down the Liberty, Satou Sabally sent a clear message after Game 2: “We’re not done yet.” Now, the Mercury stand in the semifinals, ready to take on the top-seeded Lynx.
The Mercury went just 1-3 against the Lynx in the regular season, but context matters. Kahleah Copper didn’t play a single one of those games, while Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas each missed two. Now, with everyone finally healthy, Thomas is convinced things will be different this time. “They haven’t seen us full strength so we’re ready to play,” she promised.
Strengths:
Perimeter suppression: While the teams mentioned above rely heavily on the three-ball, the Mercury have proven to be their kryptonite. They lock down the perimeter, holding opponents to just 32.1% from deep and 42.7% from the field overall.
Great rookie class: The Mercury rookie class, filled with experienced players like Maddy Westbeld (29), Kitija Laksa (29), Lexi Held (25), and Monique Akoa Makani (24), has already made its mark. Together, they’ve logged 35% of Phoenix’s minutes this season and combined for 145 made three-pointers, the most ever by a non-expansion team in WNBA history.
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Threats:
Efficiency: With just 34.0% shooting from beyond the arc and 43.3% from the field, the Mercury sit at the bottom of the semifinals pack in terms of overall efficiency.
4. Indiana Fever
Who would have thought that a team missing five key players—including their star, Caitlin Clark—would make it to the semifinals? Yet that’s exactly what the Indiana Fever have done. On the back of MVP contender Kelsey Mitchell, the Fever have defied expectations and are in the semifinals after taking down the 3rd seed Atlanta Dream. Upsets seem to be the Fever’s signature this season, having already toppled the Lynx to claim the Commissioner’s Cup. With their first WNBA playoff series win in 10 years under their belt, the big question now is: can they take the next step and chase the championship? What a story it would be if they can do it!
Strengths:
Home crowd: The Fever’s biggest advantage in the semifinals might just be their home crowd at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, besides team unity. With the 2:2:1 WNBA playoff format, they’re guaranteed at least one game in front of their fans—and that energy has already proven decisive. The Fever used that energy to even the series against Atlanta, and it carried through to Game 3 as well. If they can steal a win on the road, any team visiting Gainbridge will face a daunting challenge. The home-court advantage could be the X-factor that keeps their Cinderella run alive.
Dominant in Paint: Unlike the other semifinalists, the Fever dominate the paint, averaging 40.3 points per game, the highest among all four teams.
Threats:
3-point efficiency: A team that built a reputation of going crazy beyond the arc last season now ranks third-worst in three-point efficiency among the semifinalists at 34.6%, while attempting the fewest shots from beyond the arc.
EssentiallySports Take on road to the 2025 WNBA Finals
If the semifinals shake out the way form and momentum suggest, the Finals could very well feature the Minnesota Lynx against the Indiana Fever. The Lynx remain the benchmark of consistency, dominating both ends of the court and rarely faltering under pressure. The Fever, meanwhile, have been the story of the WNBA playoffs, toppling a powerful Atlanta Dream and proving they can thrive even without key stars. Las Vegas may have looked unstoppable at times, but their narrow escape against the Seattle Storm exposed cracks. Against a disciplined, balanced Lynx, Indiana’s fearless, scrappy style could make for a compelling, high-stakes clash. Irrespective of the outcome, the game wins, and Cathy Engelbert can rest easy knowing the WNBA delivered once again.
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” You are the best!!! Reading your articles are proof that your information is true and your heart is in it!!!! In the past 7-10 days I have come across articles about Griner being suspended for life, has to give Olympic medals back and WNBA’s Commissioner has been fired!!! I loved the article about little girl going to see Caitlin in Vegas!!!! Keep up on your great reporting!! ”
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” Yes I always enjoy any thing to do with the WNBA woman’s basketball teams, keep up the great work very insightful news….I love it ”
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” The Chicago Sky is my team, I’m alwayz screaming Angel Reese name. But I really enjoy the WNBA n all the teams. I’m just a girl loving girls bball!! ”
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” Outstanding editorial with a very open perspective that some people were only thinking about, but would never be bold enough to make the statements!! ”
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” Your team does a very good job on the ins/outs of the wnba. Thanks ”
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