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For all the latest developments in Congress, follow WTOP Capitol Hill correspondent Mitchell Miller at Today on the Hill. Virginia’s race for governor is historic and the focus of the nation’s attention, as Republicans and Democrats seek momentum going into next year’s congressional midterm elections. Whether voters choose Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger or Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, history will be made with the election of the first woman as governor of the Commonwealth. Virginia and New Jersey are in the political spotlight this fall, since they are the only states holding off-year elections for governor. “When you look at the election for governor of Virginia in this year, you really recognize that, at least right now, all politics are national,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington. Spanberger has leaned into criticizing President Donald Trump for firing and laying off tens of thousands of federal employees since he’s returned to the White House. Virginia has the second-most federal employees of any state in the country, only trailing California. Earle-Sears supports the president’s efforts to trim federal bureaucracy and Trump recently told reporters he believes she is a “very good” candidate, while calling Spanberger a “disaster.” Impact of AG race and texting scandal The down-ballot attorney general’s race has altered the gubernatorial campaign, with the revelation that Democratic candidate Jay Jones texted a Republican colleague in 2022, wishing deadly violence on then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family. Earle-Sears, whose candidacy has had difficulty raising money and at times been privately criticized by GOP strategists, has sought to capitalize on the scandal. She aired a television ad from the debate during which she pressed Spanberger to discuss her support for Jones and the texting issue, as the Democratic candidate remained silent. Spanberger has condemned what Jones said and has sought to distance herself from the matter. Farnsworth said Earle-Sears has had difficulty finding an issue to get “traction for her campaign” and that pressing Spanberger on whether she still backs Jones has been “the most compelling” issue of her campaign. “But it doesn’t seem like it’s really big enough to move the governor’s race, particularly given how aggressively Spanberger has condemned what Jones said,” Farnsworth noted. Polls have consistently shown Spanberger with a lead over Earle-Sears, who could become the first Black woman in the country to be elected governor. But a recent poll indicated the race may have tightened. Virginia as a bellwether Farnsworth said it is important for Democrats to win both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, if they are to make an argument that they are developing momentum to alter the balance of power in Congress. “Oftentimes, Virginia is seen as a leading political indicator, maybe more so than New Jersey, because we’re more purple than New Jersey is,” Farnsworth said. “But the reality for both parties is that you want the bragging rights of having a good year in Virginia in year one of a presidential term, to give you a sense of inevitability of gains during year two — the midterm congressional elections.” Democrats only need to pick up a handful of seats to regain power in the U.S. House. Farnsworth said Spanberger and former New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate for governor in the Garden State, are both quality candidates. They also have the advantage of a lot of “frustration and anger” among Democratic voters, aimed at the president, which helps drive turnout. But polls have shown a tightening of the race between Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who has been endorsed by Trump. Farnsworth said it would be a “very, very bad sign for Democrats” going into the midterms if they don’t prevail in both states, but especially in Virginia. Former President Barack Obama announced Tuesday that he plans to campaign in Virginia for Spanberger, appearing with her in Norfolk on Nov. 1. “Virginia’s elections are some of the most important in the country this year,” Obama said in a recently released ad for Spanberger. Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here. © 2025 WTOP. All Rights Reserved. This website is not intended for users located within the European Economic Area.
