By Shaghil Bilali

Copyright indiatimes

Five years back (September 19, 2020), the 24K carat spot gold price was Rs 51,619 per 10 gram, as per the MCX website. Now, they have soared to Rs 1,09,388. A year ago, the rate jumped to Rs 72,874. The absolute rise in the last 1 year is 50%, while in 5 years, the rise is 112%. Can we expect gold to touch Rs 2 lakh in the next 5 years?Income Tax GuideIncome Tax Slabs FY 2025-26Income Tax Calculator 2025New Income Tax Bill 2025 Why some investors have benefited from the big rally many others have missed it and want to be part of it. On the other hand, record high prices of gold prices has made many investors cautious whether they should continue to hold their investments or is time of sell. So, it is good time for investors to asses the current situation and take a call on their future course of action. Where are the gold prices headed from here? Looking at the 5-year gold price rise graph, there have been reasons such as coronavirus pandemic, Russia-Ukraine War, US global tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainties that have helped boost the yellow metal price across the globe, including India. If we talk about the current perspective, the returns from equity benchmark Nifty 50 index have been almost zero in the last 1 year. In times when equity market struggles to generate decent returns, investors tend to invest more in gold. It appears to be one of the factors influencing gold demand and its prices. Gold ETFs are known to closely follow the gold prices and a large number of gold ETFs have given returns above 47% in the last 1 year, as per Value Research data as on September 21, 2025. ‘Gold’s demand in ETF will boost gold’s demand’ Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited, says that more investment in gold ETFs can be the trigger to gold price rise. Trivesh D, COO Tradejini, says the gold’s demand in the ETF form in India will boost the yellow metal’s demand in the next few years. “If we look at in the past, the rate of 24 karat gold in 2005 was around Rs 7,000 for 10 grams, by 2010, it had climbed to nearly Rs 18,500, in 2015 it was close to Rs 26,300, and by 18th September 2025, it had crossed Rs 1,10,000. Supporting this optimism, gold ETFs in India saw inflows and surge of 36% compared to August 2024. This track record shows that gold does have long-term strength,” He adds. Factors that will drive gold rate in future Most investors are looking for clues about the movement of gold prices in the short to medium term. Many experts believe that there is still some steam left in the yellow metal. “One of the key reasons why gold could continue to deliver positive returns in coming years is its accumulation under Global ETFs. Investor’s appetite for gold had surged to unprecedented heights, with U.S-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now holding a record $215 billion in AUM. Their all-time price highs are indicating more room for further inflows in globally gold backed funds, says Maneesh Sharma of Anand Rathi. Trivesh doesn’t give price range for gold in the next 1 year, but he says that it can be 15%-20% of the current price depending on the UD Fed’s rate cut. “In the near term, gold may not double overnight, but a steady climb looks more likely. If the Fed does go ahead with rate cuts, then a weaker dollar, which in turn, will support higher gold prices, we could see gold hold firm or move 15–20% higher over the next year. If calm returns and growth stabilises, prices may cool off a bit after the recent rally,” he adds. Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money, says that central banks’ gold buying, geopolitical tensions, the price of the US dollar, the risk of persistent inflation and the evolving investment landscape for investor portfolios are some of the major factors that will determine the gold price in the next 1-5 years. “Given these dynamics, gold remains a vital element of prudent financial planning and should be viewed as an integral part of every portfolio,” said Vijay Kuppa. Will gold rate touch Rs 2 lakh/10 gm in 5 years? For the next 5 years, he says the gold price rise will depend on domestic as well as global factors. “Over five years, supply dynamics, global debt levels, and how countries like China and India manage their reserves will matter more. Adding to that any big geopolitical shocks, from wars to trade conflict will give a boost in gold price.” Maneesh says that gold’s price rise in the next 5 years depends on a combination of geopolitical factors. “A period of heightened economic uncertainty with the US economy is expected to enter either a slowdown phase or a stagflationary scenario in the next 1 – 2 years, and it could heighten safe haven appeal in gold. He says other factors that can influence the gold prices can be a lower Interest rate environment creating broader structural investment demand for gold, and global ETF inflows especially from US to continue in coming years. Maneesh Sharma of Anand Rathi estimates gold to touch Rs 1.20 lakh/10 gm in 1 year and Rs 1.7 lakh in 5 years. “We anticipate gold to surpass $4,000 an ounce levels in international spot markets by mid-2026. This translates to a level of Rs 1,18,000 – Rs 1,20,000 per 10 gm in local domestic markets. On a 2 – 5 Year perspective, prices may even test $ 5000 per ounce levels translating to a range of Rs. 1,50,000 – 1,70,000 per 10 gm in domestic markets.” Should you buy, hold, or sell gold now? While most of the expert look optimistic about the gold price movement not only in the long run but also in the short run. However, these are only estimates and there is no certainty that things will go as predicted. Experts suggest that you should invest in gold up to 5-10% of your investment portfolio depending upon your risk appetite. This may be a good time to rebalance your portfolio. If the gold part of your portfolio has gone above your decided threshold, then it may be good time to sell a part of it and invest in other assets where your investment has fallen in value. If gold is at right proportion in portfolio, then you may continue holding it. However, if your investment exposure to gold is less you can buy gold in staggered manner and gradually increase its proportion to the desired level.