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India’s export basket may be on the brink of a dramatic reshuffle , with electronics, powered by record iPhone shipments, poised to overtake petroleum products as the country’s second-largest export category, said a TOI report. The shift comes as US President Donald Trump’s renewed sanctions on Russian crude threaten to dent India’s discounted oil imports, shrinking one of the country’s biggest export contributors. iPhone Exports Surge to Record High According to government data cited by The Economic Times, India’s electronics exports surged 42% year-on-year in the first half of FY26, touching $22.2 billion , nearly half of which came from Apple’s iPhones alone. During the same period, iPhone exports reached $10 billion, making the devices a cornerstone of India’s manufacturing push. The sector has jumped from 7th position in FY22 to 3rd in FY25 in India’s export rankings, overtaking gems and jewellery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. At the current pace, analysts project that electronics exports could double between FY23 and FY26, driven by the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which has attracted major players such as Apple, Samsung, and Dixon Technologies. Oil Exports Lose Steam While electronics are surging, India’s petroleum exports are showing signs of fatigue. Shipments fell 16.4% in the first half of FY26 to $30.6 billion, down from $36.6 billion a year earlier. The fall comes despite refiners enjoying lower input costs through Russian crude imports over the past two years. However, Washington’s latest sanctions on Russian oil giants under the Trump administration may now choke that advantage. “The exports were going down despite the cost advantage due to Russian oil. When that advantage disappears, the fall could accelerate,” an industry analyst told ET. Petroleum products, which ranked second behind engineering goods for years, have already seen their total value slide from $97.4 billion in FY23 to $63.3 billion in FY25. Electronics Narrow the Gap The gap between petroleum and electronics exports has shrunk rapidly , from $73.9 billion when the PLI scheme began to just $24.7 billion in FY25. Experts estimate it could narrow further to $16 billion in FY26, paving the way for electronics to overtake petroleum by FY28, if current growth trends persist. Geopolitics and Global Shifts India’s electronics boom also reflects a global manufacturing pivot. As multinational giants diversify beyond China, India is emerging as a crucial alternative base , particularly for high-value electronics like smartphones. Indian-assembled iPhones now make up over 20% of global shipments, with Apple treating India as its second-largest production hub after China. Meanwhile, Washington’s shifting energy policies could reshape the other side of India’s trade equation, with refiners recalibrating crude imports and export strategies amid sanction-related volatility. Experts suggest India’s export landscape is entering a transformative phase. Engineering goods continue to hold the top spot, but the rapid ascent of electronics signals a structural change , from a resource-driven export economy to a technology-driven one. If current trajectories hold, India could soon witness an unprecedented shift , where the iPhone, not oil, powers the nation’s export engine.
