By Just Baseball,Peter Appel
Copyright yardbarker
This headline typically doesn’t make sense.
The Yankees are regularly overvalued in the betting market and haven’t won a World Series since 2009. New York consistently pulls in a substantial amount of betting action, whether it’s on their division odds (a loss) or their win total (another loss). If you took a position against them in the regular season, you’re coming out a winner.
If you bet against the Yankees in the World Series last year, you laughed your way to the bank. Talk about suffering; embarrassing gentleman’s sweep, and two months later, Juan Soto signs with the crosstown rivals. Instead of splurging on the tailored Versace three-piece suit, Brian Cashman went to Men’s Warehouse, settling for three different colored two-piece suits.
Trying to envision life without Gerrit Cole brought mixed expectations for 2025. But then the Yankees got off to a roaring start. After the first two months, the Yankees sat 5.5 games atop the AL East with the best run differential in baseball.
By the end of June, the joy was fading, as the Yankees clung to a 1.5-game lead in the division after going 13-14. Fast forward to the trade deadline; the division lead is gone. New York sports radio is calling for heads to roll. The Yankees made a few splashes, especially in the bullpen, but not enough to win the deadline or make major headlines—enough to stay interesting.
The Yankees’ “future” hasn’t worked out, and everybody knows it. Jasson Dominguez did not take a step forward, frequently making rounds on social media whenever he botched a ball in left field. Don’t even get Yankee fans started on Anthony Volpe, whose production took a nose-dive, especially on the defensive side.
The Yankees’ mistakes are so loud this season.
One error feels like five. One blown lead feels like a collapse of the Yankees brand.
As we sit here today, the Yankees aren’t perfect. The bullpen has been a major issue lately, but quietly, everything else is taking shape. As the Mariners continue their hot streak and the Blue Jays close in on the division lead, the Yankees are undervalued in the World Series market for the first time since the Black Eyed Peas were topping the music charts.
Why the Yankees Are Now Undervalued on the Betting Market
For my MLB futures, I rely on the Bat X projections made by Derek Carty, which you can find on FanGraphs. “THE BAT X has been recognized as the most accurate original season-long projection system in fantasy baseball studies for five consecutive years.”
The Yankees have the most value of any team, sitting at 12.8%, which means the implied odds should be +680. I like to double-check the other projection systems to see if they differ, and the Bat X is actually one of the lowest. ATC, another strong Fangraphs projection system, sits at 13.7%, closer to +630.
The Yankees are +950. So based on that, you’re getting about a 300-cent price difference.
However, those are just projections. The Mariners are undervalued using the same logic. Projections change after every game, but using them as a tool to point you in a direction is the best way to find value, in my opinion.
My point is that many of the issues fans and foes are complaining about have been largely resolved, and given the American League’s current state, the Yankees should be favored to represent.
Those defensive issues aren’t so glaring anymore. Anthony Volpe seems to have lost the shortstop spot to Jose Caballero, who is a much better defensive player. Volpe played last night, but manager Aaron Boone hasn’t named a consistent starting shortstop yet.
The areas that made Anthony Volpe stand out when his offense wasn’t there are speed and defense. Caballero is better in both places. He has 13 stolen bases in 33 games with the Yankees, and 46 on the year, the most of any player in baseball. It’s not just stolen bases; Caballero’s 5.6 BsR is one of the league’s best, while Volpe is slightly above average.
In those 33 games, Caballero is slashing .270/.356/.492 with a 135 wRC+ with above-average defense. Not bad for a nine hitter.
When push comes to shove, I believe Boone will go with Caballero at shortstop.
With Stanton back, Jasson Dominguez plays less frequently. The outfield defense is comprised of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Trent Grisham. All three are competent defenders.
Ryan McMahon is in the 87th percentile in OAA at third base. The left side of the infield went from a question mark to one of the better one-two defensive punches in baseball.
Ben Rice isn’t the best defensive catcher, but that’s where they are weakest, and he’s an average framer and blocker by the numbers. He makes up for it with the bat.
The Yankees’ starting rotation is the only one with two pitchers (Fried and Rodon) who have thrown at least 175 innings with an ERA below 3.15. Luis Gil has found it lately, and Cam Schlittler has pitched to a 3.41 ERA since they came up.
Max Fried has already led a team to a World Series as the ace of a staff. Looking across the landscape of the American League, the only rotation I would take above them is Seattle’s.
The offense has the best wRC+ of any team, and slugs the most by a sizeable margin. The Yankees have a .453 SLG; the next best by an AL contender is the Blue Jays at .432. The Yankees have hit 255 home runs this year; the next best AL team is the Mariners at 221.
Statistically, the Yankees have the best offense in the American League. However, when we pair bats with speed and defense, the Blue Jays’ offense has the highest WAR. As addressed above, the Yankees’ defense is much improved, so docking them because of past defensive miscues doesn’t capture the new picture.
I’m not taking anything away from Toronto; if we are looking at the entire unit, both offenses are on par with each other. The Yankees won their most recent meeting, but the Blue Jays have an 8-5 record over the entire season. The battle between these two will be fascinating. The Blue Jays are +700 to win the World Series; I’m not sold that the gap between them is that large.
The Yankees have the second-best run differential in MLB, only trailing the Brewers. Better than the Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers, and 20 runs better than second place in the AL, the Red Sox.
The Yankees are also essentially healthy going into the playoffs. Judge is still a work-in-progress when it comes to throwing the ball in the outfield, but that’s about it. While some other teams are piecing together or missing a star player, the Yankees are in a good spot.
The problem with the Yankees, and could very easily be their undoing, is the bullpen. Cashman managed to add three quality relievers at the deadline, but only one has panned out. Jake Bird is struggling in the minors. Camilo Doval has a 5.87 ERA with the Yankees. David Bednar has stepped in and done a fantastic job, but he’s the only one performing right now.
Luke Weaver and Fernando Cruz have had troubles lately, and Devin Williams has been widely inconsistent all season. The bet is on this bullpen figuring it out.
There is a real argument that they have the best combination of offense and starting pitching in the American League. The Yankees have plenty of talent in the bullpen, enough to form one of the best bullpens in the playoffs. Names on paper mean nothing unless they perform, but if they do, not only should the Yankees be favorites, they should cruise through the American League.
Half the fanbase still doesn’t like them, and the rest of MLB fans still harbor hatred for the Yankees (understandable). The reason to bet them now is that the rest of their schedule features the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, and then the Orioles again. This is after they just took two of three from the Astros and Red Sox on the road and the Blue Jays at home.
Now, if the Yankees make it through the American League, does that mean they automatically beat the Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, or any other NL contender?
Absolutely not, but having this ticket in hand going into that series creates hedging opportunities to set up for profit.
Is this the year the Yankees win their 28th World Series? Maybe, maybe not. I believe they are undervalued in the betting market, which is why I placed a half-unit wager on the Yankees to win it all on BetMGM at +950.
