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With 10 days to go until the Virginia governor election, polls show a close match between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and her Republican opponent Winsome Earle-Sears, but Spanberger still has the lead. Newsweek’s tracker, based on the 10 most recent polls, shows Spanberger with an eight point lead over Earle-Sears, on 51 percent to 43 percent. Why It Matters This year’s governor’s race in Virginia has emerged as a closely fought contest, highlighting the state’s growing reputation for political volatility. While Virginia has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, its gubernatorial contests have often defied national trends. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin narrowly defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe, winning 50.6 percent of the vote to McAuliffe’s 48.6 percent. His victory ended nearly a decade of Democratic control in Richmond and underscored the state’s potential to swing between the parties. The outcome of this year’s off-year election is expected to serve as an early test of voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Democrats hope to replicate the energy of their 2018 “blue wave” and regain ground in Congress. L: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger attends a campaign event in Louisa, Virginia, on November 1, 2018. R: Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears presides over the state Senate on February 8, 2022. What To Know The race for Virginia’s governorship has tightened in recent weeks, with Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears narrowing across several polls—though she continues to hold a small but steady advantage overall. A Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) poll found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, a drop from her nine-point lead in September’s Commonwealth Poll. A Trafalgar Group also detected a tightening contest, showing Spanberger’s edge shrinking to two points, down from five points on October 1. Similarly, a Quantus Insights survey conducted October 19–20 put Spanberger ahead 51 percent to 46 percent, a modest five-point lead. A co/efficient poll carried out October 15–17 produced nearly identical results, with Spanberger up by five points. However, some surveys have painted a more favorable picture for Democrats: Clarity Campaign Labs found Spanberger leading 53 percent to 43 percent, a ten-point margin that stands out as her strongest showing in October. A State Navigate poll from this week put Spanberger 13 points ahead, while a recent State Navigate poll put her 9 points ahead. But like other governer races, voters are divided along partisan lines. The State Navigate poll showed that among voters who identify as very liberal, liberal, or slightly liberal, Spanberger has 99 percent support. While Sears has 85 percent support among voters who identify as very conservative, conservative, or slightly conservative. Spanberger also leads among independents, polls show. Quantus Insights showed Spanberger with an eight point lead among the group. The Virginia Commonwealth University poll gave Spanberger a larger 11 point lead among independents, with 35 percent of the vote to her opponent’s 24 percent. However, the same poll found that 20 percent of voters are undecided. What Happens Next The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a likely victory for Spanberger.
