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Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill has a narrow lead over Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli in the race for governor, according to polling. Newsweek’s tracker shows that Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by just 5 points, with 49 percent to his 44 percent. Newsweek reached out to Sherrill and Ciattarelli by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours. Why It Matters New Jersey is one of just two states—along with Virginia—holding a gubernatorial election this year, with voters set to choose a successor to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is finishing his second and final term. The state has long leaned blue in statewide races. Republicans have not captured the governor’s office since 2013 and New Jersey has backed the Democratic nominee in every presidential contest since 1988. Yet recent trends show some movement on the margins: in 2024, Donald Trump improved the GOP’s performance by 10 points compared to 2020, marking the strongest Republican showing in the state in 20 years. A competitive result for Jack Ciattarelli—or even a narrow loss—would signal renewed Republican strength in the suburbs and test the resilience of Democratic dominance across the Northeast. It would also give both parties an early indication of how voters’ economic frustrations and views of Trump’s influence are shaping the post-2024 political landscape. This combination photo shows candidates for governor of New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli, left, and Democrat Mikie Sherrill during the final debate in governors race, Oct. 8, 2025, in New Brunswick, N.J. (AP Photos/Heather Khalifa) Sherrill’s Narrow Lead Holds Across Most Polls Across 10 surveys conducted from late September to mid-October, Sherrill’s lead ranges from one to eight points, underscoring a competitive contest. The Rutgers-Eagleton and Fox News polls each show her ahead by five points (50–45), while Quinnipiac places her up six (50–44). Fairleigh Dickinson University reports a seven-point margin (52–45), and John Zogby Strategies finds her ahead by eight (50–42). Other surveys suggest a much tighter race. KAConsulting shows a three-point lead (47–44), Quantus Insights finds a two-point edge (48–46), and Trafalgar Group/Insider Advantage reports just a one-point gap (45–44). The Neighborhood Research Corporation survey has the race tied at 44 percent each. Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., previously told Newsweek Sherrill would still likely win. “It’s hardly a surprise to see the Ciattarelli PAC publish a poll result in the run-up to early in-person voting showing their candidate gaining in the race,” he said. “But the reality is that New Jersey is a longtime Democrat state and it would be a major shock if Mikie Sherrill didn’t prevail. “Disquiet with the president, the ongoing legislative shutdown and the continuing economic struggle for average New Jerseyites mean they’re likely to stick with the Dems at the head of state government.” Earlier in the race, Sherrill appeared to hold a commanding advantage. A SurveyUSA poll released in May showed the Democrat leading Ciattarelli by 13 percentage points, reflecting broad support at that stage of the campaign. However, that momentum was disrupted after the release of largely unredacted military records from the National Archives detailing Sherrill’s time at the U.S. Naval Academy. The documents included disciplinary information and reportedly showed that Sherrill was barred from walking at her 1994 graduation after refusing to inform on classmates involved in a cheating scandal. Since then, her standing in the polls has slipped, though partisan loyalties remain deeply entrenched. The Rutgers-Eagleton survey found that 95 percent of Democrats said they would back Sherrill, while 94 percent of Republicans supported Ciattarelli. Independents were more divided, with 49 percent for Sherrill and 40 percent for Ciattarelli. “So far, this race is going exactly as expected,” said Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and executive director of the FDU Poll. “Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates.” Gender and Education Gaps Shape the Contest Polling shows that gender and education have become key dividing lines in the race. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll found women were 18 points more likely than men to back Sherrill, and 16 points less likely to support Ciattarelli. White non-Hispanic voters lean toward Ciattarelli, 53 percent to 46 percent, while Sherrill enjoys a strong lead among nonwhite voters, 59 percent to 29 percent. She also performs well among college-educated voters, leading 61 percent to 35 percent, whereas Ciattarelli holds an advantage among those with some college ed...
