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Write to us at startingpoint@globe.com. To subscribe, sign up here. The highest-profile elections taking place across the country today aren’t in New England. But several of the polling organizations that have given us insights about those races are. New England has a high concentration of colleges and universities, which have helped make it a hotbed of political polling. And four of them — Emerson College and Suffolk University in Boston, Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, and UMass Lowell — have surveyed the three races whose outcomes seem likely to get the most attention: the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia and New York City’s mayoral election. “These are consequential races the whole country’s watching,” said Tim Malloy, an analyst for Quinnipiac’s poll. Polling them “was a no-brainer.” All four New England pollsters have different approaches, track records, and ways of getting a feel for out-of-state electorates. UMass Lowell invites students — some from places like New Jersey and New York — to write questions. Quinnipiac students sometimes call up respondents, while Emerson partnered with a local New York TV station. Yet all of them are trying to provide insights about who’s going to win, which makes today a moment of truth. “Election Day is a lot like the Super Bowl,” says Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson’s poll. Nailing the winning candidate’s margin of victory is one goal, of course. But so is capturing other data that helps the public understand the dynamics of each race. Pollsters ask questions of people who might vote, then extrapolate to model the whole electorate. But nobody can predict who’s actually going to turn out, making polling part science and part art. “We stick to statistically sound principles,” Taglia said. “Ultimately, though, there will always be judgment calls.” They include how to word questions, when to survey a race, and how to reach a representative sample of voters. That uncertainty has helped give polling a bad rap in recent years. But polls remain pretty accurate overall, and the four New England pollsters that surveyed today’s high-profile races are among the best. At a time when polls increasingly come from campaigns, advocacy groups, or other vested interests, university surveys can be a public service — and put the schools that conduct them on the map. Here’s what the polls say about each of the major races to watch. Virginia has become a solidly Democratic state, but its off-year elections often follow the political winds. In 2021, during Joe Biden’s term, Virginia elected its first Republican governor in 12 years. With Donald Trump back in the White House, polls show Democrat Abigail Spanberger poised for an easy win. Emerson’s latest poll, released Sunday, showed her leading Winsome Earle-Sears, the GOP nominee, by 11 points. But how much Spanberger wins by could matter for the rest of the ticket. Polls suggest a much closer attorney general’s race after revelations that Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate, wrote in text messages that a Republican lawmaker and his children deserved to die. (Jones apologized.) And if a big Spanberger win helps pad Democrats’ legislative majority, it could juice efforts to redraw Virginia’s congressional maps to counteract gerrymandering in red states. New Jersey swung dramatically toward Republicans last November thanks in part to Latinos who defected to Trump. Today’s governor election may indicate whether those shifts were a passing blip or a longer-lasting realignment, said Quinnipiac’s Malloy. The school’s latest survey shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill running eight points ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Emerson, Suffolk, and others, however, show Sherrill leading by much less, within those polls’ margin of error. The differences may come down to methodology. Quinnipiac uses what’s called random digit dialing, in which a computer picks phone numbers to poll, while Emerson invites respondents to take its polls online via text message. Whichever comes closest may have better predicted this year’s electorate. All four New England pollsters find Zohran Mamdani, a progressive Democrat, in a commanding position to become the Big Apple’s next mayor, beating former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. But that doesn’t mean the outcome will be boring. “This race in particular speaks to potentially where the Democratic Party is headed,” said Emerson’s Taglia. Some Democrats consider Mamdani — a charismatic, social media-forward state legislator who has cited inspiration from Boston Mayor Michelle Wu — a model for the party to emulate. Others counter that while Mamdani may thrill liberal New York, he and his positions are less popular elsewhere. How Mamdani does tonight could signal whether his ideas and tactics have merit. Other races to watch: Boston will elect city councilors, Mainers will decide whether to limit absentee voting, and Californians may greenlight new congressional maps to boost Democratic House candidates. We’ll have the latest results in tomorrow’s newsletter. 🧩 4 Down: Forgeries | ☀️ 56° Blustery ‘I’ve dreamed about it’: For the first time ever, Cape Verde — a small island country off Africa’s western coast — will play in the World Cup. For Greater Boston’s Cape Verdean community, the opportunity means everything. Education: The Trump administration’s dismantling of the Education Department has left Massachusetts colleges that rely on federal assistance scrambling. Meanwhile, Massachusetts, Boston, and other cities and states sued the administration over changes to a federal student loan forgiveness program. Karen Read: Canton police placed the sergeant who responded to the crime scene in Read’s case on leave amid a review of alleged misconduct. Meanwhile, Read dropped three lawyers and added four others in the pending wrongful death lawsuit brought by John O’Keefe’s family. Discrimination case: Boston’s Liberty Hotel will donate to an LGBTQ group, provide anti-discrimination training, and take other steps to settle a complaint stemming from a May incident in which an employee accused a woman of being a man. The woman’s attorney said she plans to sue. Unfinished business: The Back Bay Association wants to create a business improvement district downtown that would charge commercial property owners to cover services like holiday lights and power-washing. The area’s biggest office landlord is resisting. ‘School-to-deportation pipeline’: As Massachusetts students end up in ICE custody after run-ins with police, immigration advocates warn that school safety issues can quickly escalate into deportation proceedings. Falling behind: In a bad sign for the economy, struggling Americans are increasingly missing car loan payments. Brave new world: AI-enabled “agentic” web browsers can place grocery orders, reserve library books, and set meetings. But they also bring new vulnerabilities, the Globe’s Hiawatha Bray writes. Afghanistan earthquake: A powerful quake that struck the country’s north yesterday killed at least 20 people and injured more than 640. It also damaged the Blue Mosque, a centuries-old landmark. (AP) Public art: A large and colorful mural that high-school students painted atop a New Hampshire bakery can stay after a legal settlement, ending the town’s long effort to take it down. By David Beard 🌕 Full Moon Fever: My science teacher sister Debbie would order us outside before big night-sky phenomena. With that in mind, don’t let the screen door hit you on the way out for the closest supermoon of the year. If the skies cooperate, get a peek tonight and of course, tomorrow night, when it will be the biggest. 🥧 Bye Bye, Miss ... American Pie? Now it’s apple pie AND mac ‘n cheese. Kraft thought outside the box by adding notes of tart green apple in its new flavor. Inspiration or sacrilege? You tell us! 🏀 Training gamblers? Her kids love sports. Will sports betting ruin that? 😭 Stopping tantrums: Psychologists say these seven phrases work with kids (don’t know about adults). (CNBC) 🐶 Miss Conduct: “I let my dog chase squirrels. Does that make me a terrible person?” 💍 Swift Success: She designed Taylor Swift’s engagement ring. Business is booming. (WSJ 🎁) 📖 88 is Double Lucky: Not only does octogenarian legend Thomas Pynchon have a potent movie adaptation out, his new novel, “Shadow Ticket,” is robust and energetic fun, writes Mark Feeney. Thanks for reading Starting Point. This newsletter was edited by David Beard. ❓ Have a question for the team? Email us at startingpoint@globe.com. ✍🏼 If someone sent you this newsletter, you can sign up for your own copy. 📬 Delivered Monday through Friday.
