Copyright The New York Times
The victories this past week of a democratic socialist in the New York mayor’s race and two moderate Democrats in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey represented only the beginning of the battle over the future of the Democratic Party. On one side are centrists like Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, who declared in her victory speech that voters had chosen “pragmatism over partisanship” and promised “actionable policies.” On the other are progressives like Zohran Mamdani of New York, who warned hours later against bowing “at the altar of caution.” “Democrats,” he said, “can dare to be great.” Now the stage is set to test those dueling visions in the 2026 midterm elections, which will feature a staggering number of consequential Democratic primary races, especially in contests for the Senate. States holding competitive Democratic primaries for Senate include Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan and Minnesota — and that is just the places that start with “M.” At stake is the party’s positioning on a host of issues: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, whom to tax and by how much, transgender rights, the role of money in politics, how expansive a health care agenda to pursue, what type of new energy production to embrace, and how to craft a left-wing or center-left answer to President Trump’s populism. “What you are seeing is a growing division among Democrats as to what the future of the Democratic Party should look like,” Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who finished as the runner-up in the last two open Democratic presidential primary races, said in an interview. For years, top Senate Democrats have successfully muzzled primary competition. In battleground states, they have recruited, elevated and cleared the field for candidates they believe will be the strongest nominees. Some of that has still happened this year, in states like Ohio and North Carolina. Democrats may be united in opposition to Mr. Trump and around the issue of affordability, but the Democratic base is deeply unhappy with its leaders in Washington. An impatient next generation of ambitious politicians is ratcheting up the pressure on the old guard. These Democrats are chafing over style, substance and strategy — just as the party’s ideological direction is at an inflection point. So far, Mr. Sanders himself has endorsed Senate candidates in Michigan and Maine, holding rallies in both states and joking in Kalamazoo, Mich., that he was there for the selfish reason that he gets “lonely” in the left wing of the Senate. “I need some friends,” he told the crowd. “I’d like 99 more friends,” Mr. Sanders deadpanned in the interview when asked how many allies he was hoping to add. “Probably not going to happen tomorrow.” Still, national progressives see 2026 as a rare opportunity to assert their power. Moderates warn that nominating more stridently liberal candidates could fritter away otherwise winnable races at a moment when the party desperately needs every seat it can to slow or stop Mr. Trump. “It’s not just about the stakes for the party but for the country,” said Caitlin Legacki, a centrist Democratic strategist advising a moderate Senate candidate in Michigan, where there is a fierce fight to hold the seat of a retiring Democrat. “A lot of these primaries are going to determine whether we win general elections.” Turnout in New York City doubled that of the last general election for mayor. He drew upon more than 100,000 volunteers — a shocking number for a municipal race. Mr. Sanders has brought more than 300,000 people to his “fighting oligarchy” tour this year, most recently packing a stadium with Mr. Mamdani. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a Sanders-endorsed progressive Senate candidate, said in an interview that he feared his party’s takeaway from the 2025 elections would be that opposing Mr. Trump was sufficient to fuel a comeback. “You have to take on the system that enabled Donald Trump,” Mr. El-Sayed said. “Are you working to give me something that I can believe in about what the future will look like? Or are you just opposing the Republican — a particularly odious and terrible Republican — who’s currently in the White House?” Mr. El-Sayed, a former public health official, is locked in a three-way primary race. His rivals are Mallory McMorrow, a state senator who has been an MSNBC regular and a strong online fund-raiser, and Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate who, like Ms. Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, the new governor-elect of New Jersey, flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2018. The Democratic women who won G.O.P.-held House seats that year — including Tuesday’s two winners and two 2026 Senate candidates — are part of a group chat that lit up this past week. Ms. Stevens sent a congratulations with 11 exclamation points, one person who saw the message said. In an interview, Ms. Stevens likened her campaign to those of Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, saying that she, too, would silence critics who argue that she is not exciting enough. “The same pundits and prognosticators went after my colleagues,” she said, noting that both had won overwhelmingly. The contest that has drawn the most attention is Maine, which represents the party’s best chance in 2026 to pick off a Republican: Senator Susan Collins. In years past, the recruitment of Gov. Janet Mills, a moderate who has won repeatedly in a swing state, would have been a field-clearing coup. But Ms. Mills, 77, would be the oldest freshman senator ever in a party convulsed by calls for generational change. She has drawn several challengers. Chief among them is Graham Platner, a military veteran and oyster farmer, who has wowed the progressive base, drawn gobs of donations and won an early endorsement from Mr. Sanders. More recently, his campaign has been hit by questions about old Reddit posts and a tattoo with Nazi symbolism that he recently covered up. In Minnesota, a Democratic primary has begun to fracture along ideological lines. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has refused corporate PAC donations and earned Senator Elizabeth Warren’s only Senate primary endorsement so far outside Massachusetts, her home state. On the other side is Representative Angie Craig, a member of the same 2018 class of House Democrats who flipped Republican seats as Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill. Ms. Craig served as a co-chair of the New Democrat Coalition, a centrist group in the House. Ms. Flanagan said it was crucial for Democrats to take on “bold fights.” “It’s really a choice between someone who has the guts to fight for working people and refuses to take corporate PAC money, and a more corporate Democrat who’s been happy to get along and accept the status quo that I think has gotten us into this mess,” said Ms. Flanagan, who praised Mr. Mamdani’s “incredible campaign” and who supports “Medicare for all.” Ms. Craig called herself a “gets stuff done” Democrat who takes on the “status quo,” including unseating an older Democrat to lead the House Agriculture Committee. “This is not a moment where ideology matters in the Democratic Party,” she said. “People just want to know who you are willing to throw down for and, for me, that’s been I’m willing to throw down to take on costs for my constituents.” A very different contest is unfolding in Massachusetts. A moderate 47-year-old Democrat, Representative Seth Moulton, is challenging a progressive stalwart, Senator Ed Markey, 79, by making an argument for generational change. Now a third candidate, Representative Ayanna Pressley, an original “Squad” member with Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, is considering entering the race, potentially further scrambling the contest.
