Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is poised for a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter as a combination of rising theme park attendance, per-capita spending, and strategic pricing moves across its parks and streaming services positions the company to outperform revenue and profit expectations.
While box office softness weighs on content sales, growth in Disney+ subscriptions, new cruise offerings, and cross-selling initiatives are set to underpin overall margins and drive momentum into 2026.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Michael Ng forecasted fourth-quarter EPS of $1.19, above the Visible Alpha consensus of $1.04, with adjusted EBIT of $3.69 billion, compared with the expected $3.48 billion, supported by a 2% increase in domestic park attendance and a 5% rise in per-capita spending.
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The bank reiterated its Buy rating and $152 12-month price forecast, implying 34% upside to Friday’s $113.47 close.
Goldman projects Experiences’ fourth-quarter revenue of $8.83 billion, versus the consensus of $8.78 billion, representing 7% year-over-year growth.
The bank noted that the growth should also benefit from the launch of the Disney Treasure cruise ship earlier this year, recent price hikes at Walt Disney World, where most ticket prices rose by $5-$10, cross-selling initiatives such as the Lightning Lane Premiere Pass, and new Disney Vacation Club property openings.
In Entertainment, Goldman forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $10.28 billion, slightly below the consensus of $10.47 billion, reflecting softer box office trends. Segment EBIT is projected at $879 million, well above the consensus of $683 million.
Disney+ net additions are seen at approximately 1 million, versus the expected 2 million, and the bank maintains Disney+ core ARPU estimate of $7.85.
Disney+ should benefit from the recently announced October 21, 2025 (v. October 7, 2024 year-ago) price increases, the bank noted. Disney+ with ads rising to $11.99 from $9.99 and Premium to $18.99 from $15.99 should underpin margins. Hulu’s ad-supported tier will rise by $2 to $11.99 a month, while its ad-free plan will remain unchanged at $18.99.
The bank revised its Content Sales and Licensing (CSL) revenue estimate to $1.81 billion (previously $2.00 billion, consensus $1.98 billion), primarily due to weaker-than-expected box office performance for The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
Goldman Sachs revised down its Linear Networks revenue estimate to $2.13 billion (previously $2.21 billion, consensus $2.15 billion) and EBIT to $436 million (previously $511 million, consensus $366 million).
The bank estimates Sports’ EBIT at around $881 million, broadly in line with the consensus. Sports revenue is expected to be around $3.93 billion, just below the $3.95 billion consensus.
Looking ahead, Goldman forecasts that Disney will deliver a 13% EPS CAGR from fiscal year 2025-2028, underpinned by streaming scale, cruise ship expansion, and sports monetization.
Bearish investors are concerned about potential slowing in U.S. travel demand, the delayed launch of a new cruise ship, more dry docks, and recent changes to financial reporting, such as the company no longer disclosing subscriber numbers for its streaming services.
Price Action: DIS shares were trading higher by 0.78% to $114.35 at last check Monday.
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