Copyright Salt Lake City Deseret News
It’s no secret that things aren’t going well for the Utah Mammoth. Players and fans alike are voicing their frustrations with a certain degree of puzzlement, given the seven-game win streak that preceded their current 1-5-0 stretch. The Mammoth held a top-three spot in the Central Division standings until this losing skid. They now sit in the second wild card spot, with the rest of the Western Conference breathing down their necks — and if they don’t figure things out soon, they’ll forfeit that position too. Head coach André Tourigny chalked it up to puck luck. “When you win, there’s a lot of stuff (that goes) right,” he said after his team’s 4-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Sunday. “The puck doesn’t hit you and go beside the net — it hits you and goes in the net. ... The line is always thin, and right now we’re on the wrong side of it.” He recalled, as an example, a six-on-five sequence in that game, where a net-front scramble left the goalie with no chance, but the puck just couldn’t find its way in. Hockey actually has a stat to quantify puck luck: PDO, which combines save percentage and shooting percentage. This season as a whole, the Mammoth are the seventh-luckiest team by that metric, but over the last 10 games, they’re the fourth-most unlucky. What do stats say about the Utah Mammoth? Not everything can be attributed to luck. Here are a few under-the-hood stats that show how Utah should allot their focus. The Mammoth are the fifth-best team in the league in terms of shots against, yet they’re the fourth-worst in team save percentage. What’s more is that over the last 10 games, they’ve allowed the most low-danger shots against and the fifth-most medium-danger shots against. That combination suggests that the team is playing solid defense, but the goalies are not carrying their weight. Over the last 10 games, they’ve taken the fewest penalty minutes in the league and they’ve drawn the second-fewest. So, while their power play is the sixth-worst in the NHL and their penalty kill is perfectly mediocre, five-on-five should be their most prominent focal point. They’re fourth-last in hits thrown over the last 10 games, but they’re third-last in hits received, too. That suggests that it’s been a good decision to keep small, skilled forwards like Kailer Yamamoto and Michael Carcone in the lineup over bigger, tougher guys like Liam O’Brien and Kevin Rooney. And it doesn’t take a statistician to realize that the second line, which now consists of Barrett Hayton, Dylan Guenther and JJ Peterka, has gone cold: precisely one point between the three of them since the Edmonton game. No growth in the comfort zone A poem by Douglas Malloch offers perspective for those going through hardships, whether in sports or life. It says, in part: "Good timber does not grow with ease, The stronger wind, the stronger trees, The further sky, the greater length, The more the storm, the more the strength. By sun and cold, by rain and snow, In trees and men good timbers grow." Every team goes through rough patches at some point during an 82-game season, but what separates the good from the bad is how they deal with it. The bad ones find excuses, the good ones grow from it. “It’s adversity,” Tourigny said. “We need to keep our composure and keep pushing through. ... We need to just find a way to be mentally strong and find a way to push the cart across the finish line.” Homeward bound Finally playing at home might help. Eight of the Mammoth’s last nine games have been on the road, and the fact that all but one of those opponents made the playoffs last season didn’t make it easier. Utah has participated in the fewest home games of any team in the league at this point in the season, though their 4-1-0 record at the Delta Center should give fans hope for these next two weeks. For context, the Toronto Maple Leafs have hosted the most home games this year with 12, while the Mammoth won’t play their 12th home game for nearly another month — Dec. 8, to be exact. It’s up to the players to decide whether a tough stretch like this is going to galvanize the group or tear it apart.
