Penn State was forced to swallow the same unsavory pill it has for years, thanks to another big-game loss to Oregon in the White Out.
The Ducks toppled the Nittany Lions in overtime, 30-24, behind a steady offense and stifling defense. Penn State’s offense was anemic and placed a well-performing defense in too many tough situations.
How close were our Penn State staffers to correctly predicting the outcome? Considering we all picked Penn State to win, not very.
But we nailed a few key factors and moments in the game.
Let’s look back on our predictions.
Max Ralph, PennLive reporter
PLAYERS ON THE SPOT: Dante Moore. Oregon’s first-year starting quarterback has been to a White Out before, it just came when he was still a recruit. The noise inside Beaver Stadium will be unlike anything he’s heard. The Ducks have been one of the nation’s most explosive offenses at more than 50 points per game this year, but Moore’s ability to navigate the White Out will be paramount.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF… Zakee Wheatley gets his first interception of the season. James Franklin said this week that Penn State’s dynamic safety is finally coming into his own under Jim Knowles’ defense, and the owner of five career picks could give Moore fits from myriad positions on the field. Penn State’s defense needs a big game from the secondary.
PREDICTION: I’m much more indecisive about this game than I thought I’d be during the offseason because of Penn State’s slow offensive start — and Oregon’s explosive one. But Knowles will keep Moore on his toes, and the Lion offense will control the tempo just enough on the ground. Expect an important Ryan Barker field goal in the fourth quarter to help make the difference.
Penn State 30, Oregon 26
ANALYSIS: I’ll pat myself on the back for coming pretty close to the final score, albeit with a flipped outcome. And indeed, Moore was composed all night and made plays when needed.
Wheatley didn’t have an interception, but he nearly had a fumble recovery that simply was overturned.
Bob Flounders, PennLive reporter
PLAYER ON THE SPOT: Drew Allar. He doesn’t have a signature win at PSU. Easy choice.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF… Penn State finds itself in an early hole for the second consecutive time vs. Oregon, just not as bad.
PREDICTION: The Lions start to gain control in the second quarter. Andy Kotelnicki’s offense is effective running the ball, but PSU isn’t going to click for 297 the way they did last December. Kaytron Allen does damage, the Lions’ defense forces a second-half turnover and Allar and Luke Reynolds team up for a score off a play-action throw.
Penn State 27, Oregon 23.
ANALYSIS: Well met, Bob. Allar didn’t have his best stuff, and it cost Penn State. And Oregon did get out to the early lead. The run game wasn’t particularly effective until the late stages, though, and Reynolds did not score.
Joe Hermitt, PennLive photojournalist
PLAYERS ON THE SPOT: We haven’t learned much about Penn State as an offense thus far, but there hasn’t been reason for coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to show his hand, especially in the passing game. The running game is going to do its part, but QB Drew Allar is going to have to make a couple of big throws against a young Oregon secondary to seal the deal. Can he rise to the occasion?
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF… PSU’s defense is the best unit on the field with DC Jim Knowles dialing up schemes that confuse inexperienced QB Dante Moore forcing a couple of turnovers. The defense traditionally feeds off the noise and energy the crazed White Out crowd brings, and Saturday will be electric.
THE PICK: It is only September, but this feels like a must-win for PSU. Everything lines up for the signature win James Franklin so desperately needs: a frenzied White Out crowd, experience and talent at every position and a well-rested, healthy team. If not now, when?
Penn State 27, Oregon 20
ANALYSIS: Like Bob, Joe was all over Allar not stepping up to the moment. But there’s an argument as to whether the Penn State defense was the game’s best unit.
Johnny McGonigal, PennLive reporter
PLAYERS ON THE SPOT: Tony Rojas, Zakee Wheatley and whoever else Jim Knowles decides to stick on Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq, arguably the top tight end in the country. Sadiq is a freak athlete who runs good routes, has great hands and can break away for YAC. Sadiq is a difference-maker in the passing game, especially for a young QB in a White Out environment. He’s also a more than willing run blocker, which is something else Penn State has to contend with.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF… Oregon scores a touchdown on its opening drive. Will Stein is one of the best offensive coordinators in the country, and he’ll have an opening game script ready to combat the insane noise that’ll come down from the White Out crowd.
PREDICTION: Even if the Ducks start out hot, I don’t see them having enough sustained success to take down Penn State. I think Drew Allar will come out firing, Nick Singleton will break off a long run, and Kaytron Allen will be the game-changer moving the chains. I’m predicting that Penn State will have a third-quarter lead, forcing Oregon QB Dante Moore to press the envelope and make a big mistake. Dani Dennis-Sutton and Co. will close it out in a big way.
Penn State 31, Oregon 17
ANALYSIS: Penn State wasn’t going to completely silence Sadiq, but Rojas and Wheatley played a strong game and kept Sadiq to 49 yards and no scores.
Oregon only went six plays and punted on its opening drive.
Johnny gets the undesirable honor of having the furthest-from-correct score prediction this week.